Market · 3 of 9 outcomes
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 19:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | 1,520 | 7.3¢ | $182 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | Yes | 1,387 | 9.9¢ | $166 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 487 bets |
| Mikele0x2552…73d2 | Yes | 746 | 8.0¢ | $90 | — |
| flow-trader-at-optiver0x1584…71b6 | No | 82 | 53.0¢ | $72 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 6,776 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 69 | 98.9¢ | $60 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 131,061 bets |
| kvinster0xb171…a647 | Yes | 393 | 12.7¢ | $47 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 271 | 19.0¢ | $33 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| iutwpfal0xb89f…1c44 | Yes | 192 | 8.6¢ | $23 | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 1,531 bets |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | Yes | 188 | 12.6¢ | $23 | — |
| Blurry-Ball0x4734…60b1 | Yes | 162 | 15.6¢ | $19 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 145 | 3.1¢ | $17 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,679 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 136 | 3.1¢ | $16 | New0 settled bets |
| Biver520xec82…6eaa | Yes | 134 | 7.7¢ | $16 | Positive+$3.72 per $100 · 13,010 bets |
| Spectrum0x0781…c4ff | Yes | 124 | 10.5¢ | $15 | Positive+$1.28 per $100 · 6,282 bets |
| 0x2821…7908 | Yes | 122 | 32.9¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 15 | 90.9¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 1,656 bets |
| 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $12 | — |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 100 | 3.0¢ | $12 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| xiaodouzi0x9e80…30e2 | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $12 | — |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 94 | 1.6¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x6d19…5dc0 | Yes | 88 | 8.9¢ | $11 | — |
| JustBot0xe33b…6de8 | Yes | 79 | 30.0¢ | $9 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 78 | 0.4¢ | $9 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0xf8a7…2653 | Yes | 73 | 13.7¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xe495…4a5b | Yes | 70 | 10.4¢ | $8 | — |
| moroder0xc2f2…9c80 | Yes | 68 | 14.7¢ | $8 | — |
| DUQWDGQ0x66fc…b636 | No | 9 | 96.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x56a8…eea2 | Yes | 60 | 1.6¢ | $7 | — |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd0x5446…18f6 | Yes | 51 | 8.8¢ | $6 | — |
| PushinPsforMaine0x81d1…4e30 | Yes | 51 | 26.0¢ | $6 | — |
| HappyG3490x2b9b…5375 | Yes | 48 | 42.1¢ | $6 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 40 | 7.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xc861…3c87 | No | 5 | 94.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xfa01…800a | No | 5 | 84.1¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x2813…2323 | Yes | 36 | 27.7¢ | $4 | — |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 31 | 6.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| NyanDoggo0x6c59…e3bb | Yes | 30 | 29.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 13klklas0x52b3…3a58 | No | 4 | 81.1¢ | $4 | — |
| Pfifferling0x5c6a…6b69 | Yes | 20 | 24.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Baumfreund0x7313…cbbc | Yes | 20 | 29.0¢ | $2 | — |
| unkownperson0xe323…9784 | Yes | 20 | 7.0¢ | $2 | — |
| renzyego0x5174…0c80 | Yes | 16 | 31.5¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xaa4a…ad2f | Yes | 14 | 7.1¢ | $2 | — |
| lolomgggty0xb242…eb89 | Yes | 12 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| romanew-crypto0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | 11 | 9.7¢ | $1 | — |
| gis1on0x5146…56e1 | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $1 | — |
| isnE4ZgjkP3nxh0xdb9c…483d | Yes | 10 | 9.7¢ | $1 | — |
| gummy-usb0xdf81…697d | Yes | 10 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 9 | 14.1¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| moonrise-clump0x48c4…19e5 | No | 1 | 90.0¢ | $1 | — |
| wpsk0xc518…671c | Yes | 7 | 27.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0127…3476 | Yes | 6 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 3-mil-on-tour0x7595…872e | Yes | 6 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| YouSayUpISayDown0xf6f6…0e74 | Yes | 5 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| l1nkus0x0b54…76ea | Yes | 5 | 8.0¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 5 | 9.7¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | 4 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| taurus-silver0xedd6…09e0 | Yes | 4 | 26.0¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 89.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,902 bets |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 0 | 72.6¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 93.3¢ | $0 | — |
| smallreceipt0x942e…be27 | No | 0 | 89.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf2eb…6eb5 | No | 0 | 72.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213210xe347…b438 | No | 0 | 89.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213213210x98ac…40d9 | No | 0 | 98.4¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.