Market · 5 of 9 outcomes
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:41 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PeterEriksson0xc7e7…40b4 | Yes | 2,327 | 0.9¢ | $10 | — |
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | 1,363 | 1.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| Brunomars0x6562…508e | No | 4 | 98.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 274 | 1.5¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 260 | 7.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | 255 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| moonrise-clump0x48c4…19e5 | No | 1 | 97.5¢ | $1 | — |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 1 | 87.2¢ | $1 | — |
| wing12340x02ae…bad5 | Yes | 183 | 1.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$12.89 per $100 · 792 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 152 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x56a8…eea2 | Yes | 150 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.0x613b…da44 | Yes | 150 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$57.66 per $100 · 63,695+ bets · updating |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 136 | 3.1¢ | $1 | New0 settled bets |
| ma990x6c37…d40f | Yes | 124 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.97 per $100 · 7,458 bets |
| 0xf8a7…2653 | Yes | 118 | 4.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Biver520xec82…6eaa | Yes | 112 | 1.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.72 per $100 · 13,010 bets |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 103 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| akunai0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | 103 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.83 per $100 · 9,510 bets |
| 2kparabellum0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 97 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 94 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| AAA-Battery0x6c30…a7fc | Yes | 82 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 80 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,223 bets |
| prognozu0x8199…bb6d | Yes | 62 | 4.7¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 52 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,679 bets |
| hr26g2re62de0xe381…3ba9 | Yes | 51 | 1.4¢ | $0 | — |
| JustBot0xe33b…6de8 | Yes | 37 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | Yes | 33 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| YouSayUpISayDown0xf6f6…0e74 | Yes | 29 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 25 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,048 bets |
| paas20xa4bd…e8a2 | Yes | 25 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,816+ bets · updating |
| CalOne10xd8b5…b789 | Yes | 22 | 1.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 22 | 3.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| Baumfreund0x7313…cbbc | Yes | 20 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 7kpq925mx2cv0xbaae…c925 | Yes | 19 | 1.5¢ | $0 | — |
| smallreceipt0x942e…be27 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 14 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,902 bets |
| Jimmybear0x2e42…0dfe | Yes | 12 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 52adsa0x5146…ac5e | Yes | 12 | 1.1¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 98.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xcaa8…cf5d | Yes | 9 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| FunctionSharp0xa597…48f8 | Yes | 9 | 11.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| 0xf2eb…6eb5 | No | 0 | 93.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 3-mil-on-tour0x7595…872e | Yes | 6 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 5 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| 13klklas0x52b3…3a58 | No | 0 | 95.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 14gjhgjk0x3f1f…feae | Yes | 4 | 2.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 8,319 bets |
| 0xed89…647b | Yes | 4 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Anon3213210xe347…b438 | No | 0 | 97.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | Yes | 3 | 3.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| cfii8bh9whw30xa430…fd55 | Yes | 3 | 5.1¢ | $0 | — |
| pd.unique0x27ab…e521 | Yes | 1 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 30,847 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 0 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.61 per $100 · 87,448 bets |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | Yes | 0 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.