Market · 33 of 54 outcomes
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
42 more outcomes in this event.
These 54 outcomes add up to 91.6¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
US 2028 presidential race · 12 events · $64.4M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 3 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abure7N0xd13a…b59b | No | 533 | 99.2¢ | $533 | New35 settled bets |
| ijnvg0xe57c…f7f8 | Yes | 773,435 | 1.0¢ | $387 | New |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| shane460xb681…1ed8 | No | 286 | 99.1¢ | $286 | New63 settled bets |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | No | 265 | 93.9¢ | $265 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| 0xcdlambjrrt0lk1en0js1mps0nipda1lyjfk0x52c2…0556 | Yes | 459,419 | 0.7¢ | $230 | New22 settled bets |
| feliciahoward0xb837…c692 | No | 121 | 99.9¢ | $121 | New41 settled bets |
3 accounts bet both sides equally · 10.2K shares each side · Show
|