Market · 4 of 54 outcomes
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:29 UTC. Not financial advice.
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.
42 more outcomes in this event.
These 54 outcomes add up to 91.4¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
US 2028 presidential race · 12 events · $64.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 28 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3d84…086b | Yes | 380,293 | 12.5¢ | $34.4K | New26 settled bets |
| JetXBTcn0xa206…2cad | No | 34,660 | 82.8¢ | $31.5K | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | No | 31,969 | 80.7¢ | $29.1K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| gopfan20xf2f6…5817 | Yes | 191,000 | 17.2¢ | $17.3K | Proven+$5.39 per $100 · 2,338 bets |
| Zptml0xecb9…5a12 | No | 11,661 | 86.8¢ | $10.6K | New73 settled bets |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 114,000 | 0.8¢ | $10.3K | Losing−$2.28 per $100 · 6,744 bets |