Market · 4 of 54 outcomes
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 13 events · $63.7M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 28 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3d84…086b | Yes | 380,293 | 12.5¢ | $34.4K | New26 settled bets |
| JetXBTcn0xa206…2cad | No | 34,660 | 82.8¢ | $31.5K | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | No | 31,969 | 80.7¢ | $29.1K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| gopfan20xf2f6…5817 | Yes | 191,000 | 17.2¢ | $17.3K | Proven+$5.39 per $100 · 2,338 bets |
| Zptml0xecb9…5a12 | No | 11,661 | 86.8¢ | $10.6K | New73 settled bets |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 114,000 | 0.8¢ | $10.3K | Losing−$2.30 per $100 · 6,748 bets |
| cqs0xdfe3…73c4 | Yes | 100,000 | 17.0¢ | $9.05K | Proven+$3.66 per $100 · 401 bets |
| DumbToSmart0xbcc3…f32d | Yes | 91,215 | 20.1¢ | $8.25K | New2 settled bets |
| 0x437b…1d11 | Yes | 90,425 | 9.9¢ | $8.18K | New62 settled bets |
| JTmon3y190x8879…6fb7 | Yes | 90,408 | 17.1¢ | $8.18K | New2 settled bets |
| Noluckniga0xb1fd…5184 | Yes | 85,613 | 18.7¢ | $7.75K | New8 settled bets |
| Ideal0x240b…f5ef | No | 6,682 | 85.9¢ | $6.08K | Losing−$3.14 per $100 · 185 bets |
| LoshEPSTN0x5944…4a73 | Yes | 62,632 | 13.1¢ | $5.67K | New29 settled bets |
| limingnftt0x66c6…53e2 | No | 5,600 | 83.8¢ | $5.09K | New49 settled bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | Yes | 53,428 | 12.0¢ | $4.84K | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,129 bets |
| thechainsmokers0xdd81…9640 | Yes | 52,747 | 16.9¢ | $4.77K | New58 settled bets |
| baojuhua0x7bc7…3976 | No | 5,000 | 82.0¢ | $4.55K | Positive+$1.72 per $100 · 108 bets |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 47,967 | 0.8¢ | $4.34K | Losing−$1.34 per $100 · 16,309 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | No | 4,694 | 81.9¢ | $4.27K | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| 0xcdlambjrrt0lk1en0js1mps0nipda1lyjfk0x52c2…0556 | Yes | 46,658 | 0.6¢ | $4.22K | New22 settled bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 45,827 | 3.5¢ | $4.15K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| Wan2340x0ebf…5bfa | Yes | 40,000 | 16.9¢ | $3.62K | Losing−$10.11 per $100 · 183 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 37,138 | 15.8¢ | $3.36K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,415 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 35,379 | 15.4¢ | $3.2K | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,306 bets |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | Yes | 30,883 | 3.5¢ | $2.79K | New41 settled bets |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $2.71K | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,324 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 30,000 | 14.1¢ | $2.71K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,272 bets |
| J-E-R0x612f…aa53 | Yes | 29,234 | 8.3¢ | $2.65K | Proven+$13.40 per $100 · 625 bets |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 29,130 | 16.5¢ | $2.64K | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| Aknilak0xc83c…88d8 | Yes | 27,793 | 20.0¢ | $2.52K | New13 settled bets |
| NAH7770x7762…8a01 | Yes | 26,680 | 17.8¢ | $2.41K | New30 settled bets |
| jjjjjh0xc9d4…fadb | No | 2,638 | 85.2¢ | $2.4K | New83 settled bets |
| odinoracle20x1142…a9bf | Yes | 25,000 | 20.0¢ | $2.26K | New92 settled bets |
| 0x0009…1d43 | Yes | 23,300 | 15.7¢ | $2.11K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 221 bets |
| DapperChapper0xf8cc…5a82 | Yes | 22,176 | 16.6¢ | $2.01K | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 1,104 bets |
| mvp740x50f4…5e6a | Yes | 20,550 | 8.0¢ | $1.86K | Positive+$5.06 per $100 · 350 bets |
| SwissMiss0xdbad…9c95 | Yes | 20,440 | 33.6¢ | $1.85K | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 1,076 bets |
| oyster820x6771…5ce3 | Yes | 20,000 | 17.1¢ | $1.81K | New16 settled bets |
| 0x9d12…9f3d | Yes | 17,966 | 17.2¢ | $1.63K | New9 settled bets |
| look8880x608b…0bec | Yes | 14,783 | 17.5¢ | $1.34K | New3 settled bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 14,444 | 0.7¢ | $1.31K | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| Boey0x0539…70f9 | Yes | 14,096 | 18.2¢ | $1.28K | Positive+$20.65 per $100 · 454 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | Yes | 13,561 | 18.0¢ | $1.23K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| 0x9222…1cef | No | 1,309 | 92.7¢ | $1.19K | New3 settled bets |
| 0x989d…4ba3 | Yes | 13,026 | 9.0¢ | $1.18K | — |
| usykftw0x4205…128e | No | 1,000 | 84.0¢ | $910 | New98 settled bets |
| 0xb425…33f5 | No | 991 | 92.3¢ | $901 | New10 settled bets |
| 0x019e…af1d | No | 888 | 83.8¢ | $808 | Losing−$7.92 per $100 · 480 bets |
| 0x157a…336a | No | 882 | 91.8¢ | $802 | New3 settled bets |
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No | 873 | 83.9¢ | $794 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| 0x69ba…5388 | No | 777 | 92.1¢ | $707 | New7 settled bets |
| 0x8c19…a4be | No | 696 | 89.5¢ | $633 | New7 settled bets |
| 0x2592…7e62 | No | 677 | 91.7¢ | $616 | New3 settled bets |
| 0x109f…30d7 | No | 639 | 91.4¢ | $581 | New13 settled bets |
| 0xf739…f31b | No | 625 | 82.7¢ | $569 | New0 settled bets |
| 0xfc03…4b1e | No | 611 | 84.0¢ | $556 | New5 settled bets |
| 0xe6c7…0ea9 | No | 610 | 92.2¢ | $555 | — |
| 0x0f34…7684 | No | 41 | 85.6¢ | $37 | Losing−$5.68 per $100 · 2,301 bets |