Market · 33 of 54 outcomes
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 13 events · $63.6M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 3 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abure7N0xd13a…b59b | No | 533 | 99.2¢ | $533 | New35 settled bets |
| ijnvg0xe57c…f7f8 | Yes | 773,435 | 1.0¢ | $387 | New |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| shane460xb681…1ed8 | No | 286 | 99.1¢ | $286 | New63 settled bets |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | No | 265 | 93.9¢ | $265 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| 0xcdlambjrrt0lk1en0js1mps0nipda1lyjfk0x52c2…0556 | Yes | 459,419 | 0.7¢ | $230 | New22 settled bets |
| feliciahoward0xb837…c692 | No | 121 | 99.9¢ | $121 | New41 settled bets |
| elsif10xc9e0…67fd | Yes | 201,117 | 0.6¢ | $101 | New1 settled bet |
| samuelkeith0x7494…f5ae | No | 73 | 99.9¢ | $73 | New63 settled bets |
| garbaty2340x32c6…c7d1 | No | 73 | 99.5¢ | $73 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 105 bets |
| e4a10d833540xb2d3…a359 | No | 70 | 99.3¢ | $70 | New85 settled bets |
| KnureKnume0xcf6a…f9d0 | Yes | 140,007 | 0.9¢ | $70 | Proven+$5.98 per $100 · 1,078 bets |
| TonJakk0xc4f7…2c7c | No | 66 | 99.2¢ | $66 | — |
| kolenekek230x5ed9…82c0 | No | 65 | 99.4¢ | $65 | New70 settled bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 127,613 | 0.5¢ | $64 | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| hamstersky0x0e63…60cf | No | 62 | 99.4¢ | $62 | New77 settled bets |
| jomallae0x30e3…c844 | No | 58 | 99.4¢ | $58 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 138 bets |
| jill750x7215…b959 | No | 53 | 99.9¢ | $53 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 104 bets |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 105,000 | 0.8¢ | $53 | Losing−$2.28 per $100 · 6,744 bets |
| contrerasjose0xbb05…5e27 | No | 48 | 99.8¢ | $48 | — |
| hfdgf0xd5ec…1238 | No | 47 | 99.3¢ | $47 | — |
| SaraAscari0xe9f6…4fa0 | No | 40 | 98.8¢ | $40 | — |
| littlegui0xf7fe…8101 | No | 40 | 99.1¢ | $40 | — |
| 0x7e23…cfd1 | Yes | 79,000 | 0.1¢ | $40 | New0 settled bets |
| matumbadzen8880x88e3…9ce8 | No | 39 | 99.9¢ | $39 | — |
| MartinaVecchi0xe046…17ef | No | 36 | 98.8¢ | $36 | — |
| GiorgiaCorradini0x42cb…e21f | No | 36 | 98.8¢ | $36 | New27 settled bets |
| gga00x425f…4d26 | No | 33 | 99.2¢ | $33 | New48 settled bets |
| 5fivee0x3980…2062 | No | 32 | 98.8¢ | $32 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 229 bets |
| ricee0x4d4c…62fc | No | 32 | 99.2¢ | $32 | Break-even+$0.10 per $100 · 106 bets |
| AdeleMorselli0x9213…0db7 | No | 31 | 98.8¢ | $31 | — |
| nhiuyi890x55b8…faf5 | No | 28 | 99.6¢ | $28 | Break-even+$0.09 per $100 · 118 bets |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 52,949 | 0.4¢ | $26 | Positive+$12.21 per $100 · 3,931 bets |
| GZ1010x6b62…593d | No | 26 | 98.8¢ | $26 | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 293 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 50,808 | 0.9¢ | $25 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| e2m0xd336…a90f | No | 25 | 98.8¢ | $25 | — |
| BiancaBergamini0x429a…507a | No | 24 | 98.8¢ | $24 | New24 settled bets |
| 79300x666a…450b | No | 21 | 99.8¢ | $21 | New50 settled bets |
| 0x824a…534c | Yes | 41,000 | 0.1¢ | $21 | New68 settled bets |
| AzzurraRinaldi0x3967…b045 | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | New25 settled bets |
| shiningdie0x27fa…0008 | No | 20 | 99.2¢ | $20 | New32 settled bets |
| MiriamMontanari0x4c3f…b227 | No | 20 | 98.7¢ | $20 | New26 settled bets |
| 0x561c…a285 | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | New21 settled bets |
| RebeccaLugli0x5659…67a1 | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | New24 settled bets |
| VittoriaBellei0x8f31…9715 | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | — |
| RebeccaRossi0x9307…834c | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | — |
| sciee0xa46d…bffb | No | 20 | 98.9¢ | $20 | — |
| RebeccaCuoghi0xa626…7a39 | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | — |
| MargheritaMalagoli0xfd48…e4c6 | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | — |
| baacc0xb623…c936 | No | 20 | 99.2¢ | $20 | — |
| tiger5550xd600…b66e | Yes | 39,435 | 0.5¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 495 bets |
| KKchallenge0xfe03…f14f | Yes | 32,948 | 0.5¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.56 per $100 · 560 bets |
| htt330x512e…adda | No | 15 | 98.8¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 102 bets |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,324 bets |
| myyy0x14f4…f1e9 | No | 15 | 98.8¢ | $15 | New55 settled bets |
| 0xc9db…e237 | No | 15 | 99.1¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x0bd0…6087 | No | 14 | 99.1¢ | $14 | New21 settled bets |
| ArnoDaniel0xaa4f…3678 | No | 14 | 99.2¢ | $14 | — |
| oji550x00e7…7ef4 | No | 14 | 98.8¢ | $14 | New55 settled bets |
| 79yangyang0x2e80…585c | No | 14 | 99.1¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A0xa3a4…5106 | Yes | 22,800 | 0.8¢ | $11 | Positive+$136.59 per $100 · 601 bets |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | Yes | 20,795 | 0.7¢ | $10 | New41 settled bets |
| 0x06a2…0acb | Yes | 20,000 | 1.0¢ | $10 | Positive+$62.80 per $100 · 626 bets |
| 0xf546…c5e7 | Yes | 19,000 | 0.1¢ | $10 | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 17,345 | 0.8¢ | $9 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,297 bets |
| etar0x0c15…944d | Yes | 15,475 | 0.4¢ | $8 | Positive+$5.00 per $100 · 169 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 14,444 | 0.7¢ | $7 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| Jugernout0x2a33…c087 | Yes | 14,286 | 1.4¢ | $7 | Proven+$7.78 per $100 · 167 bets |
| 0x2d89…ac9e | Yes | 14,000 | 0.1¢ | $7 | New28 settled bets |
| 496c0xc034…9106 | Yes | 13,516 | 1.0¢ | $7 | — |
| ddalkkak0x16bd…e288 | Yes | 13,331 | 0.4¢ | $7 | Positive+$7.19 per $100 · 657 bets |
| 3ed90x036b…6881 | Yes | 13,185 | 1.0¢ | $7 | New42 settled bets |
| PioneerPrincess0xeaf1…c04b | Yes | 12,500 | 0.8¢ | $6 | — |
| 48440x87cd…0ade | Yes | 12,356 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| eafe0xf273…2210 | Yes | 12,243 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 15ca0xfca9…9a29 | Yes | 12,169 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| LeTmean0xa324…afc9 | Yes | 12,140 | 0.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 097c0x1336…fcf0 | Yes | 12,140 | 1.0¢ | $6 | New46 settled bets |
| 2e460x688d…1cfe | Yes | 12,088 | 1.0¢ | $6 | New40 settled bets |
| a6340xa1c0…2554 | Yes | 12,039 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 5f140x78a5…4340 | Yes | 11,999 | 1.0¢ | $6 | New54 settled bets |
| Xendo10x9078…26af | Yes | 11,500 | 0.7¢ | $6 | Proven+$14.04 per $100 · 191 bets |
| Q96s3kwozynxpau0x2663…ed1f | Yes | 10,230 | 0.6¢ | $5 | Positive+$11.43 per $100 · 511 bets |
| jason0090xb150…41af | Yes | 10,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xd63e…7d1c | Yes | 10,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 10,000 | 0.2¢ | $5 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| RaymondVan0x5677…2ce9 | Yes | 9,271 | 0.6¢ | $5 | Losing−$4.16 per $100 · 748 bets |
| f2kus0xdcf8…93c6 | Yes | 8,888 | 0.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xb7de…b802 | Yes | 6,972 | 0.8¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.99 per $100 · 625 bets |
| kqwjehrbqwemn0x92f6…bd97 | Yes | 6,000 | 0.7¢ | $3 | New65 settled bets |
| 0x16cb…2704 | Yes | 6,000 | 0.8¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 7,120 bets |
| konsomida0x60c6…247f | Yes | 5,500 | 0.6¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.21 per $100 · 750 bets |
| Fermatter0x0d09…dd55 | Yes | 4,835 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 2,822 bets |
| TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8 | Yes | 4,027 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$6.58 per $100 · 1,267 bets |
| 0x4bd4…91ab | Yes | 4,000 | 0.1¢ | $2 | — |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | Yes | 3,887 | 0.6¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 4,082 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 780 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
3 accounts bet both sides equally · 10.2K shares each side · Show
|