Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 520 | 23.4¢ | $68 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 77.4¢ | $35 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 90.2¢ | $26 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 164 | 10.8¢ | $22 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | No | 15 | 79.6¢ | $13 | Proven+$7.03 per $100 · 1,581 bets |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 20.0¢ | $10 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 5 shares each side · Show
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Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.