25 bps increase

Decided by

The market resolves to how many basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changed versus the level before the Fed's December 2026 meeting.§3

Non-25bp change

A change to a level not in the displayed options is rounded up to the nearest 25 and resolves to the relevant bracket.§4

No statement

If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket.§8

Early resolution

The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC's statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued.§7

Rounding example

A cut or increase of 12.5 bps is considered to be 25 bps.§4

Counted

The upper bound of the target federal funds range, as changed versus the level prior to the December 2026 meeting.§3

Source

The FOMC's statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 per the official calendar.§5

Closes

Dec 9, 2026 · 23:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• 25 bps increase 74.5¢
• No change 22.5¢
• 50+ bps increase 2.9¢
• 25 bps decrease 1.2¢
• 50+ bps decrease 0.7¢

These 5 outcomes add up to 101.8¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 101.8¢ right now.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.