Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $491K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDAP10xe033…40a5 | Yes | 289,235 | 63.3¢ | $218K | New40 settled bets |
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | Yes | 18,766 | 75.1¢ | $14.2K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 31,015 | 29.4¢ | $7.6K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| 0xc20x37a6…6684 | Yes | 5,200 | 74.0¢ | $3.93K | — |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 4,000 | 60.0¢ | $3.02K | New77 settled bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 3,647 | 36.1¢ | $2.75K | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 3,323 | 33.2¢ | $2.51K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| 0x49fb…3914 | Yes | 2,855 | 71.0¢ | $2.16K | — |
| 0x90bf…99eb | Yes | 2,168 | 71.1¢ | $1.64K | Losing−$14.68 per $100 · 863 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 1,502 | 63.6¢ | $1.13K | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| TBill10xd52b…5c72 | Yes | 1,500 | 75.0¢ | $1.13K | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 561 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 1,163 | 57.0¢ | $878 | Positive+$6.62 per $100 · 6,737 bets |
| SunlineTicker0x4df3…788f | No | 3,170 | 28.8¢ | $777 | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 16,314 bets |
| S4uron0x65d1…0e74 | Yes | 1,000 | 74.4¢ | $755 | — |
| 0x5b91…2709 | Yes | 1,000 | 63.4¢ | $755 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 1,151 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 2,430 | 28.4¢ | $595 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,847 bets |
| 248592348972340x20ee…f8fa | Yes | 769 | 27.0¢ | $581 | — |
| toby7777770x2ee8…dbb1 | Yes | 735 | 69.1¢ | $555 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 2,136 | 26.1¢ | $523 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | No | 2,030 | 25.6¢ | $497 | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,306 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1,997 | 30.1¢ | $489 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 544 | 64.2¢ | $411 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| absol00b0x4fd7…5a31 | Yes | 521 | 62.2¢ | $393 | — |
| ElonbusBigMoney0x7d8b…863e | Yes | 507 | 72.6¢ | $383 | Losing−$4.20 per $100 · 205 bets |
| truthteller0x30e4…5102 | No | 1,519 | 26.0¢ | $372 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 3,480 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 1,447 | 28.0¢ | $355 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| ShiftyShu0x8e5b…3dea | Yes | 400 | 59.2¢ | $302 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 361 | 20.0¢ | $272 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,566 bets |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | No | 1,102 | 30.0¢ | $270 | Losing−$3.77 per $100 · 23,410 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 1,072 | 33.7¢ | $263 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc0x477a…2d8e | No | 1,000 | 34.1¢ | $245 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 914 bets |
| 0xa4c4…e42d | No | 1,000 | 65.0¢ | $245 | — |
| WarshHikingWhale0x94a3…67e3 | Yes | 305 | 59.3¢ | $230 | — |
| Maru.lucky.nala.lenu0x392a…262d | Yes | 300 | 59.2¢ | $227 | Losing−$1.59 per $100 · 306 bets |
| 0x0d46…e3ae | Yes | 280 | 76.3¢ | $212 | — |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | No | 810 | 43.9¢ | $198 | Losing−$2.89 per $100 · 32,447 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 798 | 29.9¢ | $195 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| 0x9ad5…1811 | Yes | 242 | 74.8¢ | $183 | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 241 | 73.2¢ | $182 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| Buhta0x27b5…9650 | No | 700 | 40.7¢ | $172 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 699 | 66.0¢ | $171 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,285 bets |
| uphigh0xa1d3…4356 | Yes | 217 | 47.4¢ | $164 | — |
| balabalababalabala0x2779…239a | No | 600 | 31.1¢ | $147 | Losing−$4.35 per $100 · 2,323 bets |
| 0x4e72…ffb9 | Yes | 177 | 20.0¢ | $133 | — |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | No | 509 | 30.3¢ | $125 | — |
| ryzt0x75bb…0ac5 | Yes | 156 | 77.9¢ | $118 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 450 bets |
| dstrokia0xb00a…37d2 | Yes | 150 | 57.2¢ | $113 | — |
| data-sync0x21ad…10d2 | Yes | 141 | 72.0¢ | $106 | New43 settled bets |
| CitadelOfCope0x35ef…1dd4 | Yes | 139 | 73.0¢ | $105 | Break-even−$0.77 per $100 · 181 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | No | 406 | 26.2¢ | $99 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 22,975 bets |
| WinnerWinnerChickenDinner120x7291…5b4d | Yes | 132 | 76.9¢ | $99 | — |
| 0x7907…4442 | No | 385 | 27.0¢ | $94 | — |
| rocky420250x8929…733e | No | 342 | 26.1¢ | $84 | — |
| 0xf750…7e44 | Yes | 109 | 70.4¢ | $82 | — |
| Jackkwok0xb91b…8510 | Yes | 103 | 46.2¢ | $78 | — |
| GalacticThief0xbcb5…49f6 | Yes | 100 | 59.2¢ | $76 | — |
| Alhemic0x353d…50f0 | No | 298 | 25.1¢ | $73 | Proven+$3.41 per $100 · 101 bets |
| boring9990x2140…5790 | No | 267 | 53.2¢ | $66 | Proven+$7.89 per $100 · 270 bets |
| worknplay0x4201…6133 | No | 254 | 53.2¢ | $62 | Losing−$55.26 per $100 · 124 bets |
| alihanyer0x1615…8f2b | No | 250 | 42.0¢ | $61 | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 1,132 bets |
| ozgun0xbe43…c5b1 | No | 250 | 58.2¢ | $61 | — |
| sleNti0xcf00…76f2 | Yes | 81 | 75.0¢ | $61 | — |
| 0xadc0…e839 | Yes | 71 | 71.0¢ | $54 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 219 | 25.4¢ | $54 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,106 bets |
| mashleung0x0f39…9a7b | Yes | 70 | 70.2¢ | $53 | — |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 70 | 70.1¢ | $53 | — |
| 0xa288…f80f | Yes | 69 | 30.0¢ | $52 | — |
| 0x374d…1263 | Yes | 67 | 75.9¢ | $50 | Break-even−$0.77 per $100 · 241 bets |
| 0x1ab1…bb62 | Yes | 66 | 76.9¢ | $50 | Proven+$24.23 per $100 · 892 bets |
| tacor0x033b…5fd4 | No | 202 | 28.2¢ | $49 | Losing−$4.88 per $100 · 202 bets |
| 0x73a4…3245 | No | 200 | 64.2¢ | $49 | — |
| 0xf22b…7eab | No | 200 | 30.0¢ | $49 | — |
| Gigachain16220x976a…e8ec | No | 195 | 49.9¢ | $48 | — |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | No | 189 | 27.1¢ | $46 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 36,281+ bets · updating |
| happy000xd576…b8f4 | No | 181 | 72.0¢ | $44 | New71 settled bets |
| marksman0xb7d5…0789 | No | 177 | 26.7¢ | $43 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 8,150 bets |
| 0xc249…5353 | Yes | 57 | 71.6¢ | $43 | — |
| pol0050x9958…c7c6 | Yes | 55 | 71.1¢ | $42 | — |
| 0x9165…7b93 | Yes | 53 | 75.9¢ | $40 | — |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | No | 163 | 30.9¢ | $40 | — |
| 0x8902…9b80 | Yes | 47 | 71.0¢ | $36 | — |
| 0xdbae…9720 | No | 143 | 32.4¢ | $35 | — |
| FreeCityIndividual0x098e…6fa2 | No | 133 | 56.0¢ | $33 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 5,150 bets |
| zz520x5142…4f43 | No | 131 | 37.6¢ | $32 | — |
| perentce0x8d7e…fb03 | No | 130 | 52.0¢ | $32 | — |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 127 | 26.1¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 27,486 bets |
| webot-ai0xc2a5…0ce9 | No | 113 | 54.2¢ | $28 | New25 settled bets |
| alijbee0x1874…594f | No | 111 | 37.2¢ | $27 | Proven+$3.99 per $100 · 260 bets |
| champiiio0x4f5f…5e33 | No | 110 | 51.0¢ | $27 | — |
| 0x08ef…e466 | No | 106 | 46.1¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 1,174 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 101 | 25.0¢ | $25 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 100 | 25.0¢ | $25 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,902+ bets · updating |
| 0xa1c7…bdbb | No | 100 | 41.2¢ | $25 | New83 settled bets |
| gesst0xadaf…f9f2 | No | 100 | 36.1¢ | $25 | Proven+$17.17 per $100 · 568 bets |
| 0x71e1…45f0 | Yes | 30 | 60.5¢ | $23 | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 735 bets |
| 0x50e8…3791 | No | 6 | 26.4¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 123 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 300 shares each side · Show
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