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Topic · Macro
15 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.2% of Polymarket
Events · markets
3 · 15
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Dec 9
in 59 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 74.5¢ | up 3 points this week | $0.40M |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:26 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| Hike–Pause–Hike |
| 66.5¢ |
| up 6 points this week |
| $65.6K |
| How many dissent at the December Fed meeting? | 0 | 44.5¢ | up 5 points this week | $4.4K |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDAP10xe033…40a5 | 25 bps increase | $206.2K | New40 bets |
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | 25 bps increase | $14.5K | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 1,506 bets |
| chriszyy30x052f…53fb | No on 50+ bps increase | $12.9K | Break-even+$0.96 per $100 · 297 bets |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | No on Hike–Hike–Hike | $12.0K | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No on 25 bps increase | $9.8K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| 0x9ad5…1811 | No on No change | $9.2K | – |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | No change | $7.5K | Losing−$2.88 per $100 · 32,290 bets |
| BlessedSunshine8880x22da…2866 | No change | $6.7K | – |
| truthteller0x30e4…5102 | No change | $6.6K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 3,480 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No on 25 bps decrease | $5.4K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,918 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.