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Topic · Macro
184 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
2.6% of Polymarket
Events · markets
30 · 184
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Oct 29
in 18 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October? | No change | 83.5¢ | up 1 point this week | $4.59M |
| How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 14:34 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| 0 (0 bps) |
| 95.5¢ |
| down 0.4 points this week |
| $1.95M |
| Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase | 74.5¢ | up 1 point this week | $0.40M |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 75.5¢ | up 3 points this week | $0.33M |
| How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? | 2 (50 bps) | 70.5¢ | up 7 points this week | $0.18M |
| How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? | 5.4% | 65.5¢ | up 2 points this week | $0.16M |
| Fed rate cut by...? | July 2027 Meeting | 50.5¢ | down 2 points this week | $0.14M |
| What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? | ↑ 4.25% | 74.7¢ | up 1.7 points this week | $0.13M |
| How high will US unemployment go in 2026? | 5.0% | 4.9¢ | up 0.2 points this week | $98.5K |
| Fed decisions (Sep–Dec) | Hike–Pause–Hike | 66.5¢ | up 6.5 points this week | $66.6K |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | 0 (0 bps) | $709.5K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | No change | $328.2K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| pako0x71ed…d338 | No change | $256.5K | Proven+$3.00 per $100 · 454 bets |
| gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8 | No change | $255.4K | New35 bets |
| Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7 | No change | $251.3K | Proven+$4.21 per $100 · 360 bets |
| fed260xaf45…ec7d | 0 (0 bps) | $250.9K | New30 bets |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No change | $208.5K | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004 bets |
| MysticFind0x7cf9…2798 | No change | $186.6K | Positive+$1.93 per $100 · 119 bets |
| Ronaldo21000x71ca…3501 | No change | $180.9K | Proven+$4.30 per $100 · 567 bets |
| ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c | No on 25 bps decrease | $99.3K | Proven+$4.52 per $100 · 1,293 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.