Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Decided by

Yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting.§1

December meeting included

The window is inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December 2026 meeting.§1

September meeting excluded

Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting does not count.§3

Emergency hikes

Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 qualify.§4

No early No

The market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed releases its rate change decision following its December meeting.§5

Counted

An increase in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point in the stated window.§1

Source

The Federal Reserve's official website, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.§6

Closes

Dec 10, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.