0 (0 bps)

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 13 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 99.3¢ right now.

Decided by

The exact amount of 25 basis point cuts in 2026 by the Fed, including any cuts made during the December meeting.§1

Emergency cuts

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026.§2

Early resolution

The market resolves early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible, i.e. more cuts already occurred than the strike.§5

Small cuts

Cuts between 1 and 24 bps inclusive are also considered 1 rate cut.§6

Additional source

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published on the official Federal Reserve website.§8

Counted

Not stated.

Source

FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 per the official calendar.§7

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• 0 (0 bps) 95.6¢
• 1 (25 bps) 1.8¢
• 2 (50 bps) 0.7¢
• 3 (75 bps) 0.7¢
• 4 (100 bps) 0.2¢
• 5 (125 bps) 0.1¢
• 6 (150 bps) 0.1¢
• 7 (175 bps) 0.1¢
• 8 (200 bps) 0.1¢
• 9 (225 bps) 0.1¢
• 10 (250 bps) 0.1¢
• 11 (275 bps) 0.1¢

1 more outcomes in this event.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.