Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:55 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 5 outcomes add up to 102.9¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf80e…2af8 | No | 1,082 | 99.0¢ | $1.06K | Proven+$16.72 per $100 · 124 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 500 | 96.1¢ | $491 | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | Yes | 11,047 | 5.1¢ | $210 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 136 | 97.8¢ | $133 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,912 bets |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 3,000 | 12.5¢ | $57 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 2,752 | 11.1¢ | $52 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,903 bets |