Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:16 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 5 outcomes add up to 102.9¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | No | 2,623 | 75.1¢ | $2.56K | New55 settled bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 233 | 83.6¢ | $228 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 9,249 | 17.1¢ | $227 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 113 | 82.4¢ | $111 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 3,000 | 12.5¢ | $74 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 69 | 82.1¢ | $67 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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