Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | No | 2,623 | 75.1¢ | $2.56K | New55 settled bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 233 | 83.6¢ | $228 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 9,249 | 17.1¢ | $227 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 113 | 82.4¢ | $111 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 3,000 | 12.5¢ | $74 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 69 | 82.1¢ | $67 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 2,463 | 11.1¢ | $60 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,087 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 908 | 2.5¢ | $22 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | No | 20 | 84.7¢ | $20 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| 0x786b…9519 | Yes | 784 | 26.6¢ | $19 | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 778 | 4.7¢ | $19 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| jan-delarus0x9b5a…fa77 | Yes | 625 | 16.7¢ | $15 | — |
| 0xc1e2…4e7c | No | 13 | 80.8¢ | $12 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 486 | 22.6¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| 0x0cd5…71a4 | Yes | 469 | 28.2¢ | $11 | — |
| samsmith1230x9a01…6cff | Yes | 435 | 23.9¢ | $11 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | Yes | 435 | 23.1¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | Yes | 406 | 11.1¢ | $10 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 1,687 bets |
| 0x0a38…f931 | Yes | 399 | 1.2¢ | $10 | — |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 76.0¢ | $10 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 373 | 10.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| vlospa0x5814…cb14 | Yes | 370 | 9.4¢ | $9 | — |
| kirit40xf60f…57a8 | Yes | 319 | 6.6¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 8 | 81.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,033 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 309 | 3.5¢ | $8 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 299 | 26.0¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 270 | 26.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| fz072zwvj48a0x3dbd…1939 | No | 6 | 80.6¢ | $6 | — |
| jozeslemsek0xd0bf…9f9f | Yes | 234 | 1.9¢ | $6 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 200 | 25.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 5 | 73.7¢ | $5 | — |
| ChairmanFed0x8369…f584 | Yes | 189 | 2.4¢ | $5 | Losing−$23.92 per $100 · 794 bets |
| Mekanor0x5a8b…a53e | Yes | 185 | 28.0¢ | $5 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 179 | 17.7¢ | $4 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 4 | 97.7¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.18 per $100 · 190,902+ bets · updating |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 165 | 4.6¢ | $4 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| polikstoproc0xb016…95fd | Yes | 161 | 17.8¢ | $4 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 152 | 26.7¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| lmos0x56dd…ebb2 | Yes | 109 | 8.6¢ | $3 | — |
| StanGrossman0xaf35…9a45 | Yes | 100 | 12.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$59.71 per $100 · 746 bets |
| 0x0676…2156 | No | 2 | 80.4¢ | $2 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 82 | 2.5¢ | $2 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 79 | 11.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,011 bets |
| 0x3b05…bc1c | No | 2 | 80.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 69 | 8.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| 0xb3ea…f8cb | Yes | 50 | 18.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x00cd…c0ae | Yes | 50 | 26.0¢ | $1 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 50 | 11.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| manzanazeta0xffae…adec | Yes | 37 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | Yes | 36 | 7.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3653…ef74 | No | 1 | 98.5¢ | $1 | — |
| x5w6n0x2801…9dfe | No | 1 | 80.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9afd…c377 | Yes | 25 | 12.5¢ | $1 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | Yes | 18 | 14.7¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Proxim0x5c06…1c3d | Yes | 7 | 20.8¢ | $0 | — |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | Yes | 5 | 21.8¢ | $0 | — |
| suisei201803220x0b83…e589 | Yes | 5 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
| fredfredfredfredman0x67a8…7493 | No | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 1 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,456 bets |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | Yes | 1 | 28.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 9.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| mapleggg0x6bdc…6fcd | Yes | 1 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 0 | 98.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,227 bets |
| matbobpol0x5006…48ca | No | 0 | 71.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x5287…3a16 | No | 0 | 74.0¢ | $0 | — |
| FelicityBright0xda00…61b4 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | — |
| umbrella-labs0x860c…418d | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
|