Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf80e…2af8 | No | 1,082 | 99.0¢ | $1.06K | Proven+$16.72 per $100 · 124 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 500 | 96.1¢ | $491 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | Yes | 11,047 | 5.1¢ | $210 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,841 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 136 | 97.8¢ | $133 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 3,752 | 11.1¢ | $71 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,988 bets |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 3,000 | 12.5¢ | $57 | Proven+$3.61 per $100 · 123 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 2,282 | 2.2¢ | $43 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,746 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 42 | 97.9¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | Yes | 1,251 | 11.1¢ | $24 | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 1,714 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 838 | 2.4¢ | $16 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| vlospa0x5814…cb14 | Yes | 535 | 10.8¢ | $10 | — |
| kiohssudhhd0xd0a5…3e7f | No | 10 | 98.1¢ | $10 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 399 | 10.4¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.59 per $100 · 123,775 bets |
| 4-testfollower-hm70xe694…7e7c | Yes | 271 | 4.6¢ | $5 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 5 | 93.3¢ | $5 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| qcp20xd245…2318 | Yes | 201 | 1.9¢ | $4 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 196 | 1.8¢ | $4 | — |
| lpgb0x1f5f…50fa | Yes | 79 | 11.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 98.6¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| obolmaya0x9421…0c05 | No | 1 | 98.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5533…51ba | Yes | 61 | 1.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 18,435 bets |
| jamalkibirige0xeb14…ac37 | No | 1 | 98.7¢ | $1 | — |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 60 | 14.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| yueyueyn0xb87f…f7d4 | No | 1 | 93.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x75cb…7ba4 | No | 1 | 98.6¢ | $1 | — |
| delmedicopoetayloco0x3d94…a85f | No | 1 | 98.6¢ | $1 | New17 settled bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1 | 97.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,058 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 44 | 11.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,480 bets |
| ChairmanFed0x8369…f584 | Yes | 43 | 2.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$23.91 per $100 · 899 bets |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 40 | 1.7¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 36 | 6.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 0x5629…f2a3 | Yes | 25 | 8.5¢ | $0 | New32 settled bets |
| xiaxiaoqiang20260x46bf…9537 | Yes | 20 | 5.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$15.28 per $100 · 477 bets |
| cacato0xd6df…d71d | Yes | 20 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 12 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| 0x3653…ef74 | Yes | 10 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Fluo0x2b34…b202 | Yes | 10 | 3.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Hugin-og-Munin0x8fe7…6c1f | Yes | 5 | 14.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.79 per $100 · 29,719+ bets · updating |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.0x843c…0734 | Yes | 4 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 97.3¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 3 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$503.23 per $100 · 49,800+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 97.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,881 bets |
| 0x6fbc…fa10 | Yes | 2 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.87 per $100 · 1,441 bets |
| E23Lowriajksb9182912-as-q0x5f9f…a179 | Yes | 2 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | No | 0 | 98.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 1 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 0 | 98.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 22,277 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 0 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 0 | 18.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.69 per $100 · 144,760+ bets · updating |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 0 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.