Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 520 | 23.4¢ | $68 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 40 | 77.4¢ | $35 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 90.2¢ | $26 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 164 | 10.8¢ | $21 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | No | 15 | 79.6¢ | $13 | Proven+$7.03 per $100 · 1,581 bets |
| 0xd0d9…30f2 | Yes | 75 | 20.0¢ | $10 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 45 | 23.6¢ | $6 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
| haouibao0xa499…2a2b | Yes | 45 | 16.4¢ | $6 | — |
| rocky420180xeda0…7dff | Yes | 40 | 16.0¢ | $5 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 5 | 85.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1 | Yes | 28 | 15.6¢ | $4 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 26 | 15.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 25 | 12.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 23 | 15.3¢ | $3 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | Yes | 10 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| HenriIV0x8d85…726f | Yes | 10 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | Yes | 10 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasdddd44120xe9cd…be3f | Yes | 10 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | Yes | 9 | 12.8¢ | $1 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 6 | 23.6¢ | $1 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 1 | 89.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.60 per $100 · 87,250 bets |
| 0xb0e7…39d2 | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.32 per $100 · 23,021 bets |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | Yes | 5 | 12.9¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 7,880 bets |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | 5 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$7.27 per $100 · 35,318+ bets · updating |
| 0xdcdd…73a5 | Yes | 4 | 25.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.96 per $100 · 599 bets |
| kor-and-m0x0b14…f1f5 | No | 0 | 88.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Shadowmarket1210x1157…c118 | No | 0 | 85.3¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 77.4¢ | $0 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | 1 | 15.4¢ | $0 | — |
| EmethN1l23670xbdf9…7083 | No | 0 | 86.0¢ | $0 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 0 | 23.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| D2222222220x8998…2707 | Yes | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa24d…7857 | No | 0 | 82.7¢ | $0 | — |
| napamen0x8494…814a | No | 0 | 88.1¢ | $0 | — |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 0 | 14.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$10.47 per $100 · 49,814+ bets · updating |
| Polimaki0x98a8…a47b | Yes | 0 | 13.3¢ | $0 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 0 | 21.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 13,129 bets |
| RazuchiDISNEY0xc8a2…c9b6 | Yes | 0 | 15.7¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 5 shares each side · Show
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Fed decision · December 2026 · 3 events · $474K in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.