Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
3. §3This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
4. §4This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
5. §5Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
6. §6Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
7. §7Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.