<40

Decided by

The number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X from October 10 12:00 PM ET to October 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.§1

Replies on main feed

Replies do not count toward the total, but replies on the main feed such as the linked post are counted by the tracker.§3

Deleted posts

Deleted posts count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).§4

Community reposts

Community reposts that are not counted by the tracker do not count toward the total.§5

Tracker failure

If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.§8

Counted

Only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts count.§2

Source

The 'Post Counter' figure for posts at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.§6

Closes

Oct 12, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• 40-64 93.5¢
• 65-89 6.5¢
• 90-114 0.3¢
• 115-139 0.2¢
• 140-164 0.1¢
• 165-189 0.1¢
• 190-214 0.1¢
• 215-239 0.1¢
• 240+ 0.1¢

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 100.6¢ right now.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.