Market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:06 UTC. Not financial advice.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $720K in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dianarodriguez0xc7d9…245e | No | 18 | 91.0¢ | $18 | — |
| Office0x980e…7e06 | No | 11 | 91.4¢ | $11 | Positive+$2.34 per $100 · 827 bets |
| bbarker0x1f4d…846e | No | 11 | 91.0¢ | $11 | — |
| xzxz630x939d…d414 | No | 10 | 93.3¢ | $10 | — |
| ElonSimp0xfbcb…bb5d | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 0 | 95.0¢ | $0 | — |
| aaronyi09170x98fe…a726 | No | 0 | 97.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | No | 0 | 95.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.95 per $100 · 18,827 bets |
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 0 | 94.3¢ | $0 | — |
| goodman-10xb575…87ec | No | 0 | 89.2¢ | $0 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 8,831 | 9.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| InsideR50x17f1…0528 | Yes | 4,421 | 6.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 5.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 2,856 | 46.0¢ | $0 | — |
| RickRockRick0x35f3…cfd0 | Yes | 2,300 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2d2d…21c1 | Yes | 2,000 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,769 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| amy8880xc3cf…51d2 | Yes | 1,658 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| qwen4.1.fund0xb0c8…fe7f | Yes | 1,614 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.69 per $100 · 144,760+ bets · updating |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 1,500 | 1.4¢ | $0 | — |
| LuOpDip0x0479…6422 | Yes | 1,305 | 6.4¢ | $0 | — |
| jsjsnxxn0xe122…0b62 | Yes | 1,300 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mommy0070xdc36…8542 | Yes | 1,010 | 10.8¢ | $0 | — |
| babiklensmua0x1355…60ff | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $0 | New48 settled bets |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| Mr-Lucker0xaee7…37fe | Yes | 900 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dukies0xdd68…0261 | Yes | 900 | 8.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Lastworld130x0c18…a04c | Yes | 826 | 9.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$20.23 per $100 · 426 bets |
| Kamenshyk220x93fd…7e2f | Yes | 800 | 4.2¢ | $0 | — |
| exp7incher0x29b5…a992 | Yes | 700 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 700 | 3.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| bbccJ0x828e…c21b | Yes | 641 | 5.3¢ | $0 | — |
| neymarjr.santos0x27e3…7233 | Yes | 628 | 10.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf452…8ff9 | Yes | 539 | 3.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x456a…6105 | Yes | 500 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| qw81288700x544a…dbe1 | Yes | 500 | 1.8¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 492 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,746 bets |
| Cocer0xc882…9cb2 | Yes | 426 | 5.4¢ | $0 | — |
| OiSassm80x2e8c…c39a | Yes | 400 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| gordontradedc0x04a2…e16c | Yes | 393 | 8.5¢ | $0 | — |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 390 | 6.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe83c…04ce | Yes | 389 | 12.1¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 380 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Feracios0xb816…9e90 | Yes | 375 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 360 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| AndreaPirlo0x09b4…e56d | Yes | 359 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| NotCopeGotHacked0xb017…e1e3 | Yes | 300 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | Yes | 291 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd17a…3eac | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| mel270x6afe…f266 | Yes | 244 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| SupremeGambler0xf2bf…66c7 | Yes | 240 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 200 | 8.4¢ | $0 | — |
| mqpcd0x0503…0743 | Yes | 178 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x913f…c676 | Yes | 175 | 7.7¢ | $0 | — |
| NBALOL0x0186…40ed | Yes | 175 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| jargon06060xf61f…1cf3 | Yes | 175 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| cohorts0xbb5a…1537 | Yes | 141 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| pendulum02060x98d6…51dc | Yes | 129 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| MartinPNZ0xe130…4006 | Yes | 120 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| liq20x3423…fe57 | Yes | 116 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 100 | 1.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 82 | 7.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,815 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.