Market · 7 of 9 outcomes
Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:23 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | No | 95 | 96.2¢ | $91 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,008 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 12 | 91.4¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 145 | 10.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 102 | 6.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 100 | 6.3¢ | $4 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 65 | 8.8¢ | $3 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
These 9 outcomes add up to 110.9¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Fed decision · January 2027 · 3 events · $72.6K in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.