Hike-Pause-Hike

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the Fed Hike-Pause-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?”.

1. §1The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
2. §2The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
3. §3This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: October 27 to 28; December 8 to 9; and January 26 to 27.
4. §4A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
5. §5A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
6. §6A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
7. §7If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
8. Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".