Lula da Silva 4-8%

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?”.

1. §1The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
2. §2This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
3. §3For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
4. §4Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
5. §5If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
6. §6If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
7. §7This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.