Market · 6 of 8 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:12 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 8 outcomes add up to 102.6¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 18,816 | 8.9¢ | $38 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 3,498 | 0.2¢ | $7 | New |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 3,024 | 0.2¢ | $6 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| jsdfsdfbdfbfg0x63f9…9bcf | No | 6 | 99.8¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 2,305 | 0.2¢ | $5 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | Yes | 1,786 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.