Market · 7 of 8 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:28 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 21,231 | 9.1¢ | $53 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 3,498 | 0.2¢ | $9 | New96 settled bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 3,444 | 0.3¢ | $9 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 3,024 | 0.2¢ | $8 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| jsdfsdfbdfbfg0x63f9…9bcf | No | 6 | 99.8¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x4488…e319 | Yes | 1,907 | 0.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 7,572 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | Yes | 1,786 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 1,495 | 0.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 1,443 | 11.1¢ | $4 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,011 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 991 | 6.7¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 793 | 11.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,456 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 742 | 11.1¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,087 bets |
| 0x1abc…45e7 | Yes | 723 | 11.1¢ | $2 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 549 | 11.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,227 bets |
| Edje250x6268…6031 | Yes | 500 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$30.99 per $100 · 1,817 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 484 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| YouSayUpISayDown0xf6f6…0e74 | Yes | 109 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 96 | 9.9¢ | $0 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 82 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| jackli0030x550f…7dad | Yes | 78 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 60 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 50 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 50 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$14.11 per $100 · 340 bets |
| sanduspace0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | 50 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| .Menthe0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | 50 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x08ff…db60 | Yes | 14 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x716d…70a8 | Yes | 14 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.43 per $100 · 26,254 bets |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | 6 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 1 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | Yes | 0 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.