Market · 8 of 8 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FrankGrimes0x4458…1ab8 | No | 35 | 99.8¢ | $35 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 18,884 | 8.8¢ | $28 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0x4488…e319 |
| Yes |
| 4,061 |
| 0.1¢ |
| $6 |
| Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 7,569 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 3,104 | 0.1¢ | $5 | Positive+$7.11 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 2,543 | 0.1¢ | $4 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | Yes | 1,786 | 0.3¢ | $3 | — |
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
These 8 outcomes add up to 102.8¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.