Market · 7 of 8 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $151K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 21,404 | 9.1¢ | $107 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 3,914 | 0.5¢ | $20 | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 3,101 | 1.1¢ | $16 | New96 settled bets |
| bagsbunny0xdbd0…edc4 | Yes | 2,506 | 0.5¢ | $13 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 1,852 | 0.5¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| Mijdel0xccbf…dce5 | No | 9 | 97.9¢ | $9 | — |