Market · 6 of 8 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:25 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 23,477 | 9.3¢ | $82 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,061 bets |
| 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | 7,208 | 0.4¢ | $25 | Positive+$13.28 per $100 · 8,633 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 4,853 | 0.5¢ | $17 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 30,110 bets |
| bagsbunny0xdbd0…edc4 | Yes | 3,208 | 0.4¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 3,101 | 1.1¢ | $11 | New96 settled bets |
| Mijdel0xccbf…dce5 | No | 9 | 97.9¢ | $9 | — |
| 76hghhtiopew0x5538…f65d | No | 8 | 99.9¢ | $8 | New72 settled bets |
| yui3423hgfhf0xd273…2c3e | No | 8 | 99.9¢ | $8 | — |
| vaxastadnyk0x03f7…c0cc | Yes | 2,000 | 0.3¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 2,583 bets |
| 0x6338…02a1 | No | 7 | 99.9¢ | $7 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 1,952 | 1.1¢ | $7 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 5 | 99.3¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| Bitbeee0x87ec…f2a9 | Yes | 1,044 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xbc18…139d | Yes | 1,035 | 0.6¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x85cd…2f00 | Yes | 940 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| Edje250x6268…6031 | Yes | 881 | 0.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$30.90 per $100 · 1,836 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 844 | 0.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 720 | 11.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| 0x4449…a1f9 | Yes | 714 | 1.5¢ | $3 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 702 | 11.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,906 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 600 | 11.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| 0x86aa…2682 | No | 2 | 98.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x46c1…5989 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 500 | 11.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| urhfrhchj1231230x6085…4219 | Yes | 462 | 1.0¢ | $2 | New60 settled bets |
| 0xe600…a907 | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x1abc…45e7 | Yes | 443 | 11.1¢ | $2 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 400 | 11.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$5.58 per $100 · 87,580 bets |
| 0xdcfe…b7d3 | Yes | 344 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 1 | 98.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.02 per $100 · 13,936 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | Yes | 270 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| YouSayUpISayDown0xf6f6…0e74 | Yes | 209 | 11.1¢ | $1 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 202 | 11.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,710 bets |
| jackli0030x550f…7dad | Yes | 200 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| sanduspace0x4aa3…11ce | Yes | 200 | 0.4¢ | $1 | Positive+$44.40 per $100 · 11,985 bets |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$81.10 per $100 · 22,268 bets |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 99 | 2.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,815 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | Yes | 66 | 9.9¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 60 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ivanzolo20040x42fa…4c09 | Yes | 52 | 0.5¢ | $0 | New45 settled bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 52 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 50 | 6.7¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| .Menthe0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | 50 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| acc320x3a30…99ec | Yes | 40 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.36 per $100 · 2,439 bets |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 22 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| lpgb0x1f5f…50fa | Yes | 18 | 11.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.13 per $100 · 58,633+ bets · updating |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | Yes | 10 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| sadfsadf0xd47c…c70a | Yes | 10 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| triklozoid0xeab7…b389 | Yes | 10 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2630.36 per $100 · 34,840 bets |
| 0xa05c…6f9f | Yes | 6 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| bogaboga0xa719…0f74 | Yes | 5 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd060…9fec | Yes | 1 | 83.6¢ | $0 | — |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | Yes | 0 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 6.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 0 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $151K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.