Market · 2 of 8 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 8 outcomes add up to 102.6¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | No | 19,834 | 68.6¢ | $14.6K | Proven+$11.67 per $100 · 470 bets |
| mr52global0x2344…6458 | Yes | 23,226 | 35.2¢ | $6.15K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 20,405 | 34.2¢ | $5.41K | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 3,333 | 66.9¢ | $2.45K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 7,441 | 31.0¢ | $1.97K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 1,885 | 70.9¢ | $1.39K | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 19 shares each side · Show
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