Market · 2 of 8 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 03:44 UTC. Not financial advice.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $151K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mr52global0x2344…6458 | Yes | 43,114 | 31.6¢ | $14.4K | New5 settled bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 20,405 | 34.2¢ | $6.84K | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| StudentMoney0xfb51…742d | No | 7,833 | 73.9¢ | $5.21K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 1,784 bets |
| Renan20300x88c4…129a | No | 6,593 | 68.8¢ | $4.38K | Proven+$11.66 per $100 · 472 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 7,441 | 31.0¢ | $2.49K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 3,333 | 66.9¢ | $2.22K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| flexibleagedbeef0xbbc5…b08b | No | 3,017 | 79.3¢ | $2.01K | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 2,976 | 73.4¢ | $1.98K | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| SPLPB0xdf0e…c02b | No | 2,091 | 73.0¢ | $1.39K | Break-even−$0.91 per $100 · 5,696 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 2,090 | 74.9¢ | $1.39K | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| 0x637a…a259 | Yes | 3,974 | 24.5¢ | $1.33K | — |
| copefan0x9592…a85b | Yes | 3,000 | 31.0¢ | $1K | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 1,426 | 72.8¢ | $948 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 30,110 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 1,250 | 72.9¢ | $831 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,932 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 1,186 | 73.5¢ | $789 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| JanetMoulin0x81ab…ba97 | Yes | 2,048 | 24.2¢ | $686 | — |
| 0x9495…468f | No | 1,030 | 73.0¢ | $685 | Losing−$4.14 per $100 · 12,955 bets |
| WalterWhiteW0xfacc…14f1 | Yes | 2,040 | 30.2¢ | $683 | — |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | Yes | 2,000 | 25.0¢ | $670 | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | No | 1,000 | 55.6¢ | $665 | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,477 bets |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | No | 926 | 77.0¢ | $616 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| dsoperative0x4be5…c1b3 | Yes | 1,800 | 21.0¢ | $603 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 454 bets |
| IrineuVcNaoSabeNemEu0x48b9…b0ca | Yes | 1,695 | 28.8¢ | $568 | — |
| 0xf692…554c | Yes | 1,658 | 36.6¢ | $555 | — |
| nettosoares0xc7f8…f708 | Yes | 1,592 | 26.0¢ | $533 | — |
| Predictandbreathe0x2707…0afa | Yes | 1,500 | 25.3¢ | $502 | Losing−$3.21 per $100 · 3,225 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 753 | 78.8¢ | $501 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,833+ bets · updating |
| haagzera10xeaf8…ce6d | Yes | 1,490 | 26.2¢ | $499 | — |
| ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429 | Yes | 1,355 | 49.7¢ | $454 | Positive+$1.59 per $100 · 415 bets |
| dzndvdds0xdb43…46ef | Yes | 1,263 | 26.4¢ | $423 | — |
| pogb0xc03f…249d | No | 600 | 73.0¢ | $399 | — |
| cdecercwd0x5d2d…d535 | No | 600 | 76.7¢ | $399 | Positive+$2.25 per $100 · 106 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 546 | 70.0¢ | $363 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,318 bets |
| hamazonas0x22b4…a41f | Yes | 1,071 | 28.8¢ | $359 | — |
| GroovyCr0c0dil30xa066…710b | Yes | 800 | 28.1¢ | $268 | — |
| Betoreagan0x2e59…f95d | Yes | 539 | 28.6¢ | $180 | — |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 500 | 11.1¢ | $168 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| bagsbunny0xdbd0…edc4 | Yes | 491 | 26.0¢ | $164 | — |
| Slowbathroom0x508f…775f | No | 230 | 66.9¢ | $153 | Proven+$6.89 per $100 · 300 bets |
| Buzz12z0xac94…e414 | No | 230 | 66.9¢ | $153 | — |
| JoaoLagos0x0445…c3e1 | Yes | 449 | 26.2¢ | $150 | — |
| 0xe8b9…e006 | Yes | 437 | 27.8¢ | $146 | — |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | Yes | 411 | 37.4¢ | $138 | Break-even−$0.02 per $100 · 13,936 bets |
| Bitbeee0x87ec…f2a9 | Yes | 406 | 24.4¢ | $136 | — |
| 0xa33e…7e84 | Yes | 400 | 35.5¢ | $134 | — |
| 0x800a…5d7c | Yes | 311 | 28.6¢ | $104 | — |
| JDragon0xeca7…9567 | Yes | 310 | 27.6¢ | $104 | — |
| kadu0x6f67…8d70 | Yes | 305 | 30.8¢ | $102 | — |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 281 | 19.0¢ | $94 | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 9,815 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | Yes | 270 | 23.7¢ | $90 | — |
| defeatatmarengo0x15bb…22b3 | Yes | 266 | 38.5¢ | $89 | — |
| ImNotBetting0x686d…1a68 | Yes | 240 | 35.0¢ | $80 | — |
| dassmann0x599c…e1f6 | Yes | 227 | 22.7¢ | $76 | — |
| Golfinho100x5453…65ce | Yes | 204 | 49.9¢ | $68 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 321 bets |
| Kutoba0x40b5…6b5f | Yes | 200 | 52.0¢ | $67 | Break-even−$0.59 per $100 · 606 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 200 | 51.0¢ | $67 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| JohnP920x9163…82ae | Yes | 200 | 29.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Chedj130x06fd…17a2 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Hdcne140x09f0…a554 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| YY9990x0a58…bab1 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Aapo9990x13dc…9f88 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Xbjsdh210x2061…ab12 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Ahdudjh230x38f2…98b7 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Cvhufh160x39ab…7785 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Ddra110x41ae…edb4 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| zhukefu0x4508…16b8 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| xiangpao8880x5308…f4c0 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Shxjdjs190x77c2…1892 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Zbxjsjsjj200x8785…3ab4 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Hdkxh150x8cb8…4b98 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| ChoiceMeteor25200xb082…5138 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Chbjurd220xb2dc…5ee1 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| ange440xb7b4…6b73 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Uuul7770xbb79…c40c | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Djjdhs260xc3af…85ca | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| manzu5550xc496…8944 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Djxjfjsha180xcf96…42a1 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Cfbhh60xd3f2…3c46 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| 0xd66c…c7c4 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Gshxudj240xd9a5…95fe | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| dadaole100xe21e…164d | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Ggsf120xe92f…dc2a | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Djxnsid170xed3e…b8c6 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Xjdjksh250xef6f…fd1f | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Dchhtddk270xf17f…0740 | No | 100 | 73.0¢ | $67 | — |
| 0xe361…bf48 | Yes | 196 | 23.7¢ | $66 | — |
| dreatrio0x7125…935e | Yes | 160 | 24.9¢ | $54 | — |
| ulysse2220x25d9…ff14 | Yes | 160 | 26.0¢ | $54 | New42 settled bets |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | No | 80 | 69.0¢ | $53 | — |
| 0xcd4e…3b72 | Yes | 155 | 49.2¢ | $52 | — |
| 0x4a5b…4e4d | Yes | 152 | 31.4¢ | $51 | — |
| fpvtrade0x252d…ad22 | Yes | 138 | 23.7¢ | $46 | — |
| capivaradas0xc4ee…4816 | Yes | 136 | 27.8¢ | $45 | — |
| alan20260x0636…7ba9 | Yes | 133 | 25.8¢ | $44 | — |
| 0x1abc…45e7 | No | 65 | 70.5¢ | $43 | — |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 129 | 28.8¢ | $43 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | Yes | 124 | 59.6¢ | $42 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 62 | 73.2¢ | $41 | — |
| 0x4ca4…c467 | Yes | 113 | 27.3¢ | $38 | Losing−$11.65 per $100 · 325 bets |
| Mrhammer0x0a11…8aec | Yes | 112 | 29.3¢ | $38 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.