Market · 4 of 8 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 18,208 | 11.0¢ | $1.73K | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,579 | 89.5¢ | $1.43K | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 4,037 | 11.0¢ | $384 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | No | 310 | 89.4¢ | $281 | — |
| StudentMoney0xfb51…742d | No | 308 | 88.9¢ | $279 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 1,758 bets |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 2,500 | 11.1¢ | $237 | New96 settled bets |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 44 shares each side · Show
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These 8 outcomes add up to 102.6¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.