Market · 4 of 8 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:24 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 18,208 | 11.0¢ | $1.73K | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,579 | 89.5¢ | $1.43K | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 4,037 | 11.0¢ | $384 | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | No | 310 | 89.4¢ | $281 | — |
| StudentMoney0xfb51…742d | No | 308 | 88.9¢ | $279 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 1,758 bets |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 2,500 | 11.1¢ | $237 | New96 settled bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 2,305 | 11.5¢ | $219 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| 97979797979970x2516…d95f | Yes | 1,954 | 10.4¢ | $186 | New14 settled bets |
| novv250xa9fe…f135 | Yes | 1,796 | 10.5¢ | $171 | Losing−$25.33 per $100 · 112 bets |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 1,471 | 10.1¢ | $140 | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004+ bets · updating |
| 0x37b4…5315 | Yes | 1,143 | 12.1¢ | $109 | — |
| sohperde_69_4200xebed…04c2 | Yes | 1,062 | 12.2¢ | $101 | — |
| Predictandbreathe0x2707…0afa | Yes | 1,000 | 9.0¢ | $95 | Losing−$3.24 per $100 · 3,219 bets |
| 0xe1eb…e902 | Yes | 789 | 14.5¢ | $75 | — |
| Tysha0x9be9…c030 | No | 80 | 90.4¢ | $72 | — |
| bagsbunny0xdbd0…edc4 | Yes | 575 | 10.8¢ | $55 | — |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 500 | 11.1¢ | $48 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| urhfrhchj1231230x6085…4219 | Yes | 462 | 11.3¢ | $44 | New58 settled bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 441 | 11.1¢ | $42 | Positive+$2.37 per $100 · 57,731+ bets · updating |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | Yes | 440 | 7.8¢ | $42 | — |
| kadu0x6f67…8d70 | Yes | 398 | 10.0¢ | $38 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 367 | 11.1¢ | $35 | — |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 350 | 9.1¢ | $33 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 327 | 6.5¢ | $31 | Losing−$1.44 per $100 · 58,479+ bets · updating |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 300 | 9.0¢ | $28 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 0xf5e4…471a | Yes | 288 | 1.0¢ | $27 | — |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | No | 24 | 91.3¢ | $22 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 215 | 11.1¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 202 | 9.6¢ | $19 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 20 | 91.3¢ | $18 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 20 | 93.0¢ | $18 | — |
| ImNotBetting0x686d…1a68 | Yes | 117 | 8.4¢ | $11 | — |
| wing12340x02ae…bad5 | Yes | 100 | 8.0¢ | $10 | — |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 100 | 10.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0xf205…90b7 | Yes | 100 | 11.4¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x800a…5d7c | Yes | 100 | 10.4¢ | $9 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 10 | 90.4¢ | $9 | Positive+$2.90 per $100 · 12,432 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 85.0¢ | $9 | — |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 86.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x7eab…9eae | Yes | 91 | 11.4¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x9f8b…22ac | Yes | 91 | 11.4¢ | $9 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 87 | 5.2¢ | $8 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| gcersosimo0xf8f7…93a4 | Yes | 60 | 11.4¢ | $6 | — |
| rianstanley0xfe16…b1ba | Yes | 60 | 12.4¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x1abc…45e7 | Yes | 59 | 11.1¢ | $6 | — |
| scherahmeda0x35eb…157d | No | 6 | 90.4¢ | $5 | — |
| hwe1230x0fbe…8f74 | Yes | 50 | 10.4¢ | $5 | — |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | No | 5 | 89.0¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.17 per $100 · 13,909 bets |
| 0x85cd…2f00 | Yes | 45 | 11.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x8875…2bad | Yes | 45 | 11.4¢ | $4 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 40 | 11.1¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,791 bets |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 4 | 89.7¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xa65b…dfc8 | Yes | 27 | 11.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3943…11fc | Yes | 18 | 11.4¢ | $2 | — |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | Yes | 10 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | Yes | 10 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x472e…0fd7 | Yes | 8 | 12.5¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | Yes | 5 | 12.0¢ | $0 | — |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | No | 0 | 90.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$10.52 per $100 · 10,908 bets |
| rocky420240x391d…def1 | Yes | 1 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| StevieKiwi0xe9f3…c4a6 | Yes | 1 | 15.1¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 44 shares each side · Show
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Brazil Presidential Runoff Margin · 2026 · 1 event · $141K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.