Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:40 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NotHarrisonHohman0xe72e…282d | No | 1,202 | 91.8¢ | $1.13K | New8 settled bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | No | 1,000 | 90.8¢ | $941 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 603 | 92.7¢ | $568 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| RobotBeta0xf379…c1ca | No | 529 | 86.8¢ | $498 | — |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | No | 314 | 90.9¢ | $296 | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 154 | 90.2¢ | $145 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
US 2026 midterms · 625 events · $32.1M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
These 3 outcomes add up to 97.7¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.