Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NotHarrisonHohman0xe72e…282d | No | 1,202 | 91.8¢ | $1.13K | New8 settled bets |
| 0xe41a…29bd | No | 1,000 | 90.8¢ | $939 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 108 bets |
| macrosteaks0xefac…c9a1 | No | 603 | 92.7¢ | $567 | Break-even−$0.35 per $100 · 14,201 bets |
| RobotBeta0xf379…c1ca | No | 529 | 86.8¢ | $497 | — |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | No | 314 | 90.9¢ | $295 | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 154 | 90.2¢ | $145 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| TRADER4200x80cf…614d | Yes | 2,093 | 8.7¢ | $128 | Proven+$8.29 per $100 · 270 bets |
| bostezo0x1710…3344 | Yes | 1,318 | 8.8¢ | $80 | — |
| PK1230x6d65…3781 | Yes | 1,250 | 11.0¢ | $76 | Losing−$5.68 per $100 · 1,488 bets |
| 0xfa3b…deab | No | 74 | 93.5¢ | $69 | — |
| neuroplasticompany0x2458…f8e7 | Yes | 1,000 | 9.7¢ | $61 | New43 settled bets |
| i2dt0x5529…e5b9 | No | 60 | 86.2¢ | $56 | Proven+$3.88 per $100 · 2,165 bets |
| TouchDownThana0xecfa…3c6f | Yes | 870 | 13.6¢ | $53 | — |
| overfatting0xddea…1ec6 | No | 48 | 92.2¢ | $45 | New3 settled bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 45 | 77.8¢ | $42 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | No | 35 | 77.5¢ | $33 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| KeithStarmer0x7ae8…5a42 | Yes | 500 | 5.8¢ | $31 | Proven+$5.38 per $100 · 677 bets |
| PowerPicker0x49e5…f527 | No | 30 | 87.8¢ | $28 | — |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | No | 20 | 90.3¢ | $19 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 1,687 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 265 | 7.2¢ | $16 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| FrozenParasite0x1f9e…4f1a | Yes | 172 | 20.8¢ | $11 | Proven+$21.36 per $100 · 1,799 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 169 | 9.4¢ | $10 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| gotonetry330x66e0…e8f0 | No | 11 | 92.2¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 729 bets |
| tradingjoe190x05cf…5fa9 | No | 11 | 92.1¢ | $10 | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 119 bets |
| anciano0xa8b7…ee3c | Yes | 137 | 8.0¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 6,243 bets |
| dedidanc0x11f8…ed31 | No | 7 | 85.2¢ | $7 | Proven+$11.21 per $100 · 235 bets |
| 0x2fe8…7487 | No | 5 | 94.0¢ | $5 | — |
| greylabel0xb7a9…715d | Yes | 78 | 18.2¢ | $5 | — |
| Kastellvalen0xe5c2…6b76 | No | 5 | 91.7¢ | $5 | — |
| mrworldwide0x98d0…f14a | No | 5 | 91.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$8.95 per $100 · 1,841 bets |
| 55sfds0x2d21…6dfe | No | 4 | 74.0¢ | $4 | — |
| vibekot0xc3e5…015d | Yes | 56 | 18.6¢ | $3 | — |
| sleepymonkey0xce4d…d0e2 | Yes | 54 | 21.1¢ | $3 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 51 | 12.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Raketa090x1790…6fd2 | Yes | 38 | 24.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.54 per $100 · 1,256 bets |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 30 | 14.2¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 28 | 11.3¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 23 | 7.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,311 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 20 | 8.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| 0xe8c6…f7f6 | Yes | 20 | 7.7¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 15 | 6.2¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0xcee5axp0xec18…8eb4 | Yes | 14 | 8.2¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 14 | 8.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 1 | 90.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | 10 | 17.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 9 | 4.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| animal.bean0x2a25…8055 | Yes | 9 | 29.0¢ | $1 | — |
| aliesad0xa156…dfcc | Yes | 7 | 14.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 678fg5ff8tifufy0x990b…aae2 | Yes | 6 | 15.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xRae0x1633…656a | Yes | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | 5 | 18.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 0x2e59…123e | Yes | 5 | 23.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | 5 | 7.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$33.48 per $100 · 563 bets |
| win-at-all-cost0x62ad…79fc | Yes | 4 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| pestanimal0x7bbf…7ce5 | Yes | 2 | 4.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 38dfgdgdgdgdgd0x97cc…d4d9 | Yes | 2 | 22.5¢ | $0 | — |
| YouSayUpISayDown0xf6f6…0e74 | No | 0 | 91.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Corlys0xd23f…94a1 | No | 0 | 76.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 58,584+ bets · updating |
| 0x664b…3b26 | Yes | 1 | 54.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 50sad0xb143…3c17 | Yes | 0 | 18.6¢ | $0 | — |
| elpatrondelaciudad0x156b…0f5b | No | 0 | 81.7¢ | $0 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 0 | 90.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.61 per $100 · 87,313 bets |
| longdated-poli0x167a…91d5 | Yes | 0 | 6.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.90 per $100 · 4,676 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 91.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| Ardtysrt010x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | 0 | 8.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.50 per $100 · 6,078 bets |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 0 | 2.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 6.8¢ | $0 | — |
| vaccatinous0x1adf…0376 | Yes | 0 | 17.5¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 675 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.