Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:58 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 2,285 | 95.4¢ | $2.27K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 773 bets |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | No | 500 | 96.5¢ | $496 | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| dogcrypto0x5d06…7821 | No | 200 | 99.3¢ | $199 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 174 | 95.9¢ | $173 | Losing−$8.60 per $100 · 29,951+ bets · updating |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | No | 173 | 97.4¢ | $172 | — |
| ballytiger0xca78…e67e | No | 113 | 98.8¢ | $112 | — |
| agreebera0x8ccf…a7a3 | No | 100 | 97.3¢ | $99 | — |
| ranksdog0xe192…7689 | No | 100 | 99.3¢ | $99 | — |
| mentionsone0xe3f6…5078 | No | 95 | 99.2¢ | $94 | — |
| baby0090x1a09…0383 | No | 60 | 97.3¢ | $60 | — |
| lionone10x481d…08c5 | No | 49 | 96.7¢ | $49 | — |
| continue00070000x2b09…3277 | No | 39 | 99.2¢ | $39 | — |
| create66660xc1d1…f1ba | No | 30 | 97.4¢ | $30 | — |
| AbyssWalker789290xabc5…9c2a | No | 6 | 99.4¢ | $6 | — |
| 00dd0xa1ff…f398 | Yes | 706 | 0.9¢ | $5 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 5 | 99.3¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,907 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 655 | 0.6¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.19 per $100 · 86,515+ bets · updating |
| amro770x62ee…c857 | Yes | 626 | 3.2¢ | $5 | — |
| artinez4899810x9c1e…450c | No | 4 | 99.5¢ | $4 | — |
| Sumire0x5653…c4ef | Yes | 483 | 3.1¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 435 | 1.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| Vaquita56410x1671…ee36 | No | 3 | 99.4¢ | $3 | — |
| MAHMT0x4e23…d084 | Yes | 376 | 4.5¢ | $3 | — |
| BambooBend0x9e07…8708 | No | 2 | 99.2¢ | $2 | — |
| S0lr99Flre0xe537…8cb1 | No | 2 | 99.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Ch4loe780x96f4…d5e7 | No | 2 | 99.2¢ | $2 | — |
| KakiBatusik0x371c…c236 | Yes | 203 | 9.9¢ | $2 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 183 | 1.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 112 | 1.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$4.43 per $100 · 82,257+ bets · updating |
| alimohammadi0xa46c…8738 | Yes | 50 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 40 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| ManAreBrave0x58c6…d759 | Yes | 36 | 2.8¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 1.2¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 8 | 2.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| tilchi0x7f1d…45dc | No | 0 | 92.4¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.