Market · 3 of 3 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:04 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xnapalm0xf6cb…3f69 | No | 2,980 | 91.9¢ | $2.76K | Proven+$2.58 per $100 · 944 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,458 | 92.0¢ | $1.35K | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 1,000 | 92.3¢ | $926 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 8,777 | 7.9¢ | $650 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,166 bets |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | No | 500 | 96.2¢ | $463 | Proven+$23.82 per $100 · 12,229 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 6,000 | 8.1¢ | $444 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
|
US 2026 midterms · 625 events · $32.1M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.