Market · 3 of 3 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xnapalm0xf6cb…3f69 | No | 2,980 | 91.9¢ | $2.76K | Proven+$2.58 per $100 · 944 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 1,651 | 92.3¢ | $1.53K | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,458 | 92.0¢ | $1.35K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 1,000 | 92.3¢ | $926 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 8,777 | 7.9¢ | $654 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,166 bets |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | No | 500 | 96.2¢ | $463 | Proven+$23.82 per $100 · 12,229 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 6,000 | 8.1¢ | $447 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| 0xoops0xede3…e3f2 | No | 300 | 93.3¢ | $278 | — |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | No | 267 | 93.0¢ | $247 | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |
| cashx10000xe72d…6424 | Yes | 1,575 | 8.0¢ | $117 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | No | 75 | 92.9¢ | $70 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 750 | 6.2¢ | $56 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| richyee0xcdf5…e344 | No | 50 | 93.0¢ | $46 | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 515 | 25.0¢ | $38 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 211 | 5.2¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | Yes | 114 | 7.3¢ | $9 | — |
| Zakaridoop20xef46…a547 | No | 8 | 93.6¢ | $8 | — |
| efren830xdd4c…5dac | Yes | 100 | 7.5¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x6904…dd04 | No | 5 | 93.7¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x9140…f62c | No | 5 | 93.3¢ | $5 | — |
| GGLPL0xf9d4…f843 | No | 5 | 93.3¢ | $5 | — |
| badatthis0x75ac…33d7 | Yes | 60 | 6.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$6.73 per $100 · 6,671 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 51 | 8.1¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| CryptoGerm0x807c…f1e3 | Yes | 50 | 8.3¢ | $4 | — |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | Yes | 26 | 8.1¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 533 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 21 | 7.5¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xc925…6d24 | Yes | 16 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| waltermontes50xacc6…236d | Yes | 13 | 8.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 1 | 94.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0x69f0…fb27 | No | 1 | 93.9¢ | $1 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 93.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 93.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
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US 2026 midterms · 642 events · $32.1M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.