Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:09 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V1nch0u0xf0f8…325f | Yes | 31,595 | 89.1¢ | $28K | Break-even−$0.37 per $100 · 9,445 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 14,068 | 89.0¢ | $12.5K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 11,360 | 88.2¢ | $10.1K | Positive+$3.90 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | No | 40,151 | 11.1¢ | $4.52K | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | Yes | 3,542 | 91.0¢ | $3.14K | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | Yes | 3,277 | 88.6¢ | $2.91K | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 371 bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | Yes | 3,040 | 88.9¢ | $2.7K | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | Yes | 3,000 | 88.3¢ | $2.66K | Proven+$20.70 per $100 · 539 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 2,517 | 89.0¢ | $2.23K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| BunCaCham0x996a…e3cc | Yes | 2,000 | 90.0¢ | $1.77K | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 3,721 bets |
| GammaSqueeze12340xb25d…d127 | Yes | 2,000 | 89.0¢ | $1.77K | New79 settled bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 14,883 | 12.5¢ | $1.67K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 1,729 | 88.5¢ | $1.53K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 1,544 | 89.9¢ | $1.37K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,413 bets |
| suraxy0xa9ac…c5d1 | Yes | 1,400 | 88.6¢ | $1.24K | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,851 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 10,306 | 11.3¢ | $1.16K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| Isengard10x9032…b5c3 | Yes | 1,000 | 91.0¢ | $888 | — |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | Yes | 705 | 89.1¢ | $626 | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| midnightoctopus0x226b…7343 | Yes | 500 | 87.0¢ | $444 | — |
| clazzy10xb23e…829a | Yes | 500 | 89.0¢ | $444 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 500 | 88.1¢ | $444 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| caaeth0x2f76…7bcc | No | 3,451 | 11.7¢ | $388 | New60 settled bets |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | Yes | 382 | 89.3¢ | $339 | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| CryptoLiu0x4d8a…2953 | No | 2,432 | 12.4¢ | $274 | — |
| 0x57e7…84e9 | Yes | 297 | 89.7¢ | $264 | Losing−$3.66 per $100 · 10,324 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 2,000 | 11.3¢ | $225 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| VenomTrade0x27ab…1f86 | Yes | 240 | 89.0¢ | $213 | New55 settled bets |
| 0x2574…144b | Yes | 225 | 89.1¢ | $200 | — |
| SableInterpreter0x08e2…6d8a | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| WalnutVoyager0x8ae4…b4bd | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| RiverStrategist0xb473…ce79 | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| MeadowPilot0xc098…e2cb | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| CanyonBiographer0xc211…6563 | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| FrostCarpenter0xc470…f3ca | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| VelvetSurvey0xcbb4…5c3d | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| LotusMessenger0xd8e5…5295 | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| IvoryEngineer0xdab8…f7bc | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| PineArchivist0xf766…5062 | Yes | 200 | 89.2¢ | $178 | — |
| trader-9b7793990x9b77…53cd | Yes | 176 | 89.1¢ | $156 | — |
| tandjlover0xd542…f187 | Yes | 171 | 90.6¢ | $152 | — |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 170 | 49.4¢ | $151 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| pykue0xa45f…d6cb | Yes | 138 | 89.3¢ | $122 | — |
| PhilIvey90xdde1…f1d7 | No | 1,040 | 11.4¢ | $117 | New96 settled bets |
| u289260xe682…a082 | Yes | 111 | 90.3¢ | $99 | Positive+$1.00 per $100 · 430 bets |
| Naiea0x301f…22f2 | Yes | 110 | 91.0¢ | $97 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 107 | 89.1¢ | $95 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0x300f…d366 | Yes | 100 | 91.0¢ | $89 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 100 | 87.0¢ | $89 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| 0x7130…5387 | Yes | 99 | 92.8¢ | $88 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | Yes | 82 | 87.0¢ | $72 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| Antony820xfd39…9ec8 | No | 500 | 11.4¢ | $56 | — |
| Arealgood0x1f4e…9d5c | Yes | 52 | 88.4¢ | $46 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 52 | 89.2¢ | $46 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| labronzee0xc975…1983 | Yes | 46 | 90.2¢ | $41 | — |
| 0x8570…a6c8 | Yes | 42 | 89.7¢ | $37 | — |
| ludo-money0x915d…5c6a | Yes | 33 | 90.4¢ | $29 | — |
| vravroum0xe434…efb0 | Yes | 32 | 89.1¢ | $28 | — |
| Spirit-LT0x1851…ae47 | No | 200 | 12.2¢ | $23 | Positive+$4.05 per $100 · 1,811 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 15 | 89.1¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| jefftko0xa797…a15e | No | 88 | 11.7¢ | $10 | — |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | No | 83 | 11.4¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x7157…e799 | No | 67 | 11.3¢ | $8 | — |
| Po1yBot-pPMdcaJCwe0xa67c…842f | No | 64 | 11.3¢ | $7 | — |
| qqqppp-l10x229c…b966 | No | 15 | 13.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6904…dd04 | No | 14 | 11.4¢ | $2 | — |
| ksms9990x57be…e140 | No | 11 | 11.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0017…19db | No | 9 | 11.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | No | 5 | 11.3¢ | $1 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 4 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| OffRoadTraveler0x0620…42ff | No | 2 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 1 | 9.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 655 events · $32.2M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.