54

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”.

1. §1This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
2. §2The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
3. §3Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026.
4. §4Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
5. §5For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
6. §6If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
7. §7For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election.