Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 09:32 UTC. Not financial advice.
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The-Joker0x9aeb…2729 | No | 11,309 | 90.1¢ | $11.1K | Proven+$2.56 per $100 · 2,752 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 4,000 | 88.4¢ | $3.91K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 3,739 | 90.6¢ | $3.65K | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,079 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 1,557 | 93.7¢ | $1.52K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | No | 1,474 | 81.8¢ | $1.44K | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 1,431 | 88.5¢ | $1.4K | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Anthropic valuation & IPO · 107 events · $6.1M in play