Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2b67…b814 | No | 20,702 | 9.4¢ | $7.74K | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| The-Joker0x9aeb…2729 | Yes | 7,234 | 90.8¢ | $4.53K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 2,282 | 90.8¢ | $1.43K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | Yes | 1,554 | 90.5¢ | $973 | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| 0x652b…f5c2 | Yes | 1,122 | 92.2¢ | $702 | Proven+$9.60 per $100 · 493 bets |
| PiMaak0xf7bb…a9f7 | Yes | 1,100 | 92.2¢ | $689 | — |
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play