Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 14:07 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The-Joker0x9aeb…2729 | Yes | 7,234 | 90.8¢ | $6.18K | Proven+$2.56 per $100 · 2,752 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | No | 20,702 | 9.4¢ | $3.01K | Positive+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 2,282 | 90.8¢ | $1.95K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,062 bets |
| 0x652b…f5c2 | Yes | 1,732 | 89.9¢ | $1.48K | Proven+$9.58 per $100 · 496 bets |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | Yes | 1,554 | 90.5¢ | $1.33K | Proven+$14.42 per $100 · 683 bets |
| 2Sherlock0xbd81…006d | Yes | 1,114 | 92.9¢ | $952 | — |
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 1,104 | 94.7¢ | $943 | — |
| PiMaak0xf7bb…a9f7 | Yes | 1,100 | 92.2¢ | $940 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 977 | 90.7¢ | $835 | Positive+$8.68 per $100 · 128,346 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 500 | 90.3¢ | $427 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 487 | 90.3¢ | $416 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 480 | 88.3¢ | $410 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 195,122 bets |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 425 | 92.1¢ | $364 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | Yes | 365 | 92.7¢ | $312 | — |
| lihpare0x4fe2…87c5 | Yes | 356 | 93.6¢ | $304 | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 1,094 bets |
| JRocHWC0x149f…d306 | Yes | 300 | 89.9¢ | $256 | — |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 214 | 93.7¢ | $183 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | Yes | 201 | 89.3¢ | $171 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 876 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | Yes | 200 | 90.0¢ | $171 | Positive+$2.97 per $100 · 1,259 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | Yes | 150 | 90.3¢ | $128 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 141 | 90.6¢ | $121 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,087 bets |
| weird-fishes0xab73…a3e1 | Yes | 100 | 89.2¢ | $85 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 100 | 89.9¢ | $85 | — |
| Legacy.crypto0x9dfb…e887 | Yes | 100 | 95.7¢ | $85 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 98 | 91.8¢ | $84 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | Yes | 72 | 89.5¢ | $62 | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 1,416 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 63 | 90.7¢ | $54 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,001 bets |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | No | 322 | 8.6¢ | $47 | — |
| StillWater00x7bab…8322 | Yes | 51 | 90.9¢ | $44 | Proven+$8.71 per $100 · 527 bets |
| 0xa2bf…95d3 | Yes | 40 | 62.9¢ | $34 | — |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | Yes | 32 | 93.6¢ | $27 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 31 | 92.5¢ | $27 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 177 | 11.9¢ | $26 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 129 | 6.2¢ | $19 | Losing−$2.53 per $100 · 124,893 bets |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 20 | 77.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$7.72 per $100 · 3,183 bets |
| sand10x34d0…264e | Yes | 20 | 94.8¢ | $17 | — |
| 0xe8f7…7ead | Yes | 17 | 91.1¢ | $14 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 87 | 4.6¢ | $13 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 80 | 8.2¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x34a9…4cfd | Yes | 12 | 91.1¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.72 per $100 · 2,503 bets |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | Yes | 11 | 92.1¢ | $10 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 238 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 61 | 17.7¢ | $9 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | No | 59 | 15.1¢ | $9 | Positive+$4.52 per $100 · 88,243+ bets · updating |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | Yes | 10 | 90.6¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 8 | 93.9¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.15 per $100 · 6,740 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 7 | 90.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,245 bets |
| PlaceHolderName0xc8ea…bf15 | Yes | 5 | 92.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x489a…fff2 | No | 30 | 11.6¢ | $4 | — |
| 00q0e0qi40gl0x16f5…c651 | Yes | 5 | 92.2¢ | $4 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 22 | 18.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | No | 21 | 13.8¢ | $3 | — |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | Yes | 3 | 91.7¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 4,971 bets |
| 0x1929…2acc | No | 10 | 40.2¢ | $1 | — |
| romanew-1-new0x7438…b741 | No | 10 | 15.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xaf8f…1de7 | Yes | 2 | 99.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0524…45b7 | Yes | 1 | 99.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 80sdfs0xfaa2…36bb | No | 5 | 19.0¢ | $1 | — |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | No | 5 | 1.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$513.99 per $100 · 51,400 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | No | 3 | 5.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.01 per $100 · 106,178+ bets · updating |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 0 | 93.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.04 per $100 · 5,169 bets |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | Yes | 0 | 89.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 1 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 15.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 5.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 111 events · $6.12M in play