45%+

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3Any Anthropic Claude model newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results and labeled as "Opus" may qualify (e.g., claude-opus-5.1, claude-opus-5.5-thinking, claude-opus-6-preview, or similar).
4. §4Claude models labeled only as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, Mythos, or another non-Opus variant will not qualify.
5. §5The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
6. §6This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
7. §7If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution.