Market · 1 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 03:40 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | Yes | 1,153 | 89.8¢ | $888 | — |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 360 | 89.5¢ | $278 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae |
| Yes |
| 350 |
| 89.2¢ |
| $269 |
| — |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | Yes | 319 | 88.1¢ | $246 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 977 | 7.4¢ | $224 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,124 bets |
| 2Sherlock0xbd81…006d | Yes | 285 | 88.8¢ | $220 | — |
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 104 events · $6.09M in play