Market · 2 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 05:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | Yes | 1,153 | 89.8¢ | $912 | — |
| folioquant0xeb52…67cc | Yes | 360 | 89.5¢ | $285 | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 533 bets |
| Milksheen0xd872…dfae | Yes | 350 | 89.2¢ | $277 | — |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | Yes | 319 | 88.1¢ | $252 | — |
| 2Sherlock0xbd81…006d | Yes | 285 | 88.8¢ | $226 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 977 | 7.4¢ | $204 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 128,135 bets |
| 0x652b…f5c2 | No | 944 | 11.4¢ | $197 | Proven+$9.60 per $100 · 493 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | Yes | 134 | 76.7¢ | $106 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| Computerdude1110xf186…09b0 | Yes | 73 | 80.8¢ | $58 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 241 | 14.0¢ | $50 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,869 bets |
| smartpreset0x1680…490d | Yes | 62 | 90.0¢ | $49 | Losing−$6.07 per $100 · 985 bets |
| 0xfaab…02ff | Yes | 50 | 75.0¢ | $40 | — |
| xSundancer0xfdc3…f14e | Yes | 44 | 89.9¢ | $35 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 135 | 10.9¢ | $28 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 120 | 11.8¢ | $25 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 114 | 11.6¢ | $24 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,686+ bets · updating |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 27 | 88.5¢ | $22 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,245 bets |
| PlaceHolderName0xc8ea…bf15 | Yes | 17 | 91.0¢ | $13 | — |
| VonVonagh0xeace…38b9 | No | 50 | 9.2¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x2b67…b814 | No | 49 | 8.8¢ | $10 | Positive+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| 0xa2bf…95d3 | No | 43 | 9.7¢ | $9 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 11 | 94.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 35 | 10.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| romanew-1-new0x7438…b741 | No | 35 | 18.1¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 30 | 10.5¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,075 bets |
| iminmymomscarbroombroom0x2eae…8d29 | Yes | 6 | 90.1¢ | $4 | Losing−$25.58 per $100 · 350 bets |
| weird-fishes0xab73…a3e1 | No | 21 | 11.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 80sdfs0xfaa2…36bb | No | 20 | 17.4¢ | $4 | — |
| boempie0xb678…299e | No | 20 | 7.8¢ | $4 | — |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | No | 13 | 14.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xc19a…66f9 | Yes | 3 | 95.2¢ | $2 | — |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 5.9¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| ddaasdf0x9209…a393 | No | 10 | 5.9¢ | $2 | — |
| pinner0xd886…1746 | No | 7 | 11.6¢ | $2 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | No | 7 | 7.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | No | 5 | 4.0¢ | $1 | — |
| bot-wordpicker0x6630…6ae9 | No | 4 | 12.0¢ | $1 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 3 | 5.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.96 per $100 · 93,070 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 0 | 89.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 1 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PerformSleepState0xbdad…3ef7 | No | 0 | 15.7¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 93.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 92.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 88.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 105 events · $6.09M in play