Market · 4 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The-Joker0x9aeb…2729 | No | 11,309 | 90.1¢ | $11.1K | Proven+$2.98 per $100 · 2,738 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 4,000 | 88.4¢ | $3.91K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 3,739 | 90.6¢ | $3.65K | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,075 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 1,557 | 93.7¢ | $1.52K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | No | 1,474 | 81.8¢ | $1.44K | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 1,431 | 88.5¢ | $1.4K | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,309 bets |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | No | 1,300 | 93.6¢ | $1.27K | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 800 | 91.3¢ | $782 | Proven+$2.64 per $100 · 1,415 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | Yes | 26,910 | 10.4¢ | $605 | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| PiMaak0xf7bb…a9f7 | No | 560 | 83.0¢ | $547 | — |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | No | 500 | 91.5¢ | $489 | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 2,456 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 493 | 89.9¢ | $482 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | No | 431 | 96.8¢ | $421 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 1,254 bets |
| totti820x5f83…5dc1 | No | 411 | 81.0¢ | $401 | Positive+$3.96 per $100 · 132 bets |
| Zhaowei0x1f13…3a2d | No | 200 | 95.1¢ | $196 | Losing−$1.21 per $100 · 657 bets |
| 0x34a9…4cfd | No | 197 | 90.8¢ | $192 | Positive+$1.72 per $100 · 2,503 bets |
| eratoxtenex0x0b65…013e | No | 150 | 91.0¢ | $147 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 845 bets |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | No | 129 | 82.0¢ | $126 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 108 | 94.1¢ | $106 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 102 | 92.1¢ | $100 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 100 | 81.0¢ | $98 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| sand10x34d0…264e | No | 100 | 93.6¢ | $98 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 100 | 93.3¢ | $98 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| dgfd760x191e…ef6b | No | 55 | 84.0¢ | $54 | — |
| ferraracesare0x5aa0…c2d1 | No | 40 | 90.0¢ | $39 | New32 settled bets |
| 0xfcef…9499 | No | 28 | 93.1¢ | $28 | — |
| asfui8j90x9771…605e | No | 25 | 50.6¢ | $25 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 25 | 91.4¢ | $24 | — |
| SnowRazer0x40c2…b2fc | No | 20 | 90.1¢ | $20 | Positive+$1.86 per $100 · 6,416 bets |
| kitty070xe84f…af9c | No | 20 | 64.0¢ | $20 | — |
| gramzal0xb01d…3634 | Yes | 702 | 3.0¢ | $16 | — |
| 0xe8f7…7ead | No | 16 | 94.0¢ | $16 | — |
| johnthek0xd925…f36f | No | 16 | 83.6¢ | $15 | — |
| m3tuna0x4f9e…9aa0 | No | 14 | 95.4¢ | $14 | Losing−$43.17 per $100 · 959 bets |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | No | 12 | 83.0¢ | $12 | — |
| rewardbots0x876b…1703 | Yes | 500 | 10.5¢ | $11 | Proven+$11.15 per $100 · 504 bets |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 5 | 83.8¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,368 bets |
| simulacrum30x2843…b3d2 | Yes | 173 | 12.2¢ | $4 | Losing−$4.40 per $100 · 2,572 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 166 | 12.6¢ | $4 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| 00q0e0qi40gl0x16f5…c651 | No | 3 | 98.3¢ | $3 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 136 | 32.3¢ | $3 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| omaralex0x1b9f…47c2 | Yes | 118 | 17.4¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 3 | 97.1¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 109 | 7.6¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,565+ bets · updating |
| 0x3451…4c4a | Yes | 88 | 9.5¢ | $2 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 80 | 6.7¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 80 | 34.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 75 | 3.2¢ | $2 | — |
| petruccci0x9370…9e88 | No | 1 | 90.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 60 | 24.3¢ | $1 | — |
| Welcome20260x1073…d8ba | No | 1 | 83.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Frosty20xf915…0c01 | No | 1 | 90.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x95e8…81ef | No | 1 | 98.1¢ | $1 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 44 | 2.7¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 40 | 3.5¢ | $1 | — |
| rockscorpio0x85e9…c6ed | Yes | 37 | 16.0¢ | $1 | — |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | No | 1 | 89.9¢ | $1 | — |
| romanew-5-15p0x93e2…92b9 | Yes | 33 | 15.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5a4b…f3b0 | Yes | 30 | 5.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe72b…3c9c | No | 1 | 87.4¢ | $1 | — |
| h.h0x3b6e…70fa | Yes | 20 | 5.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 19 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 17 | 32.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| 0xa282…4697 | Yes | 15 | 6.9¢ | $0 | — |
| PlaceHolderName0xc8ea…bf15 | Yes | 10 | 13.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xe83c…0d7f | Yes | 8 | 15.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1d3f…6c07 | Yes | 5 | 28.0¢ | $0 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 1 | 10.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| ramc20050x57a8…d092 | No | 0 | 87.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 93.2¢ | $0 | — |
| sdfsdfsdfsdf20x321e…9292 | No | 0 | 91.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.75 per $100 · 16,321 bets |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | No | 0 | 89.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8a63bE6F97A1dC4E83f5B2A7C19D4E60x8a63…1c02 | Yes | 0 | 49.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 80sdfs0xfaa2…36bb | Yes | 0 | 38.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | 0 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| the-260-Challenge0xcb58…ccd0 | Yes | 0 | 6.0¢ | $0 | — |
| BASSATS010xe4ca…1383 | Yes | 0 | 60.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
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Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play