↑ 12%

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?”.

1. §1This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republican Party's hourly odds value in the "House Control 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
2. §2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
3. §3An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page.
4. §4Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
5. §5An hour in which the Republican Party's hourly odds value is below the listed threshold ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values.
6. §6Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for the Republican Party (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values.
7. §7If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for the Republican Party in the "House Control 2026" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing the Republican Party from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.