Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 06:24 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side |
|---|
| Shares |
|---|
| Bought at |
|---|
| Worth now |
|---|
| Record |
|---|
| suraxy0xa9ac…c5d1 | No | 1,972 | 76.1¢ | $1.47K | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,851 bets |
| Ko-san-1230x8792…4174 | No | 1,445 | 64.5¢ | $1.08K | Proven+$7.12 per $100 · 818 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 2,371 | 26.1¢ | $605 | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| nchgbhy0x57b0…76f4 | No | 616 | 67.2¢ | $459 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,943 bets |
| cashy0x8f42…b88f | Yes | 1,497 | 35.0¢ | $382 | Proven+$11.86 per $100 · 1,051 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 400 | 74.5¢ | $298 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| MrMelonHead0x9f66…3a50 | No | 318 | 72.3¢ | $237 | — |
| LehmanBrother2.00x5fbf…8925 | No | 306 | 69.0¢ | $228 | New12 settled bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | Yes | 813 | 27.5¢ | $207 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 269 | 74.8¢ | $201 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 220 | 70.1¢ | $164 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| Newshound0x5e73…6697 | Yes | 626 | 34.9¢ | $160 | Proven+$5.54 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | No | 195 | 72.0¢ | $145 | — |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | Yes | 330 | 26.6¢ | $84 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 109 | 66.4¢ | $81 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| Peter.YF0x4079…7126 | No | 102 | 65.8¢ | $76 | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 783 bets |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | Yes | 280 | 37.4¢ | $71 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | No | 80 | 47.0¢ | $60 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| Notarealtrader0xc133…352a | No | 78 | 64.0¢ | $58 | — |
| iamnotwhoiwas0x2035…dc1c | No | 71 | 65.8¢ | $53 | — |
| fd43gsfg0x4754…1210 | No | 50 | 76.0¢ | $37 | New24 settled bets |
| ForeverRed0xa577…b06a | No | 44 | 68.0¢ | $33 | — |
| adasol0x5297…7b99 | Yes | 127 | 47.2¢ | $32 | Positive+$1.62 per $100 · 486 bets |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | Yes | 125 | 27.7¢ | $32 | Losing−$12.60 per $100 · 4,915 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 39 | 76.9¢ | $29 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 100 | 26.0¢ | $26 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| 0x14a1…9912 | Yes | 77 | 33.0¢ | $20 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 25 | 57.0¢ | $19 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 23 | 70.0¢ | $17 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 22 | 75.0¢ | $16 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,934 bets |
| Milin-dc0x2762…2cf6 | No | 20 | 69.5¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 1,651 bets |
| Seer-U0x635d…43f8 | No | 20 | 71.5¢ | $15 | — |
| EliteBetter0x81c9…4a47 | No | 20 | 66.0¢ | $15 | — |
| bubububblebutt0xb220…5f71 | No | 19 | 67.0¢ | $14 | — |
| EuropeLiquidity0xf2ee…bdff | Yes | 50 | 31.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 28.0¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 42 | 28.0¢ | $11 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| IceWindL0xdae6…e440 | Yes | 41 | 36.0¢ | $11 | Proven+$7.53 per $100 · 261 bets |
| 0x0174…95b0 | Yes | 36 | 28.0¢ | $9 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 29.0¢ | $8 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 7,880 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 57.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 9,059 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 4,786 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| asdfasdfasdf340x48c5…10fc | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 10,798 bets |
| kk819ddd0x4b58…dd1a | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 58.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 67xxabcsdafasdf0x779d…267c | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| sdafsafd0x8513…6a53 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| asdfasdddd44120xe9cd…be3f | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $7 | — |
| qcp30xd663…ca64 | Yes | 29 | 39.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x4ea3…b7f3 | No | 9 | 65.5¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 8 | 69.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,043 bets |
| ArthurGreen0xd5db…3c45 | Yes | 13 | 27.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$4.68 per $100 · 1,000 bets |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 4 | 68.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$3.71 per $100 · 4,954 bets |
| 0x96e9…c01d | Yes | 11 | 32.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$22.02 per $100 · 121 bets |
| WhiteRiceHoldCo0xeb03…5d15 | No | 3 | 55.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Yurga0xca76…da8d | No | 3 | 67.0¢ | $2 | — |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | Yes | 7 | 32.0¢ | $2 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 7 | 27.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 2 | 60.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,249 bets |
| 0xa0c7cA3805C0x4f63…5bbc | Yes | 5 | 24.0¢ | $1 | — |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 2 | 66.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 614 bets |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | Yes | 4 | 32.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$23.82 per $100 · 12,229 bets |
| Assura0x19a6…1cec | Yes | 3 | 35.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Po1yBot-6NEazyE4Ef0x87d1…3da3 | Yes | 2 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 1 | 75.9¢ | $1 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | Yes | 1 | 24.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| edge9990xab44…c994 | Yes | 1 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 2 shares each side · Show
| |||||
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.