Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
Iranian Regime Collapse · Before 2028 · 8 events · $5.13M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 13 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| zb80x0224…292a | No | 56,576 | 77.6¢ | $50.1K | Positive+$1.39 per $100 · 1,467 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | No | 19,529 | 77.3¢ | $17.3K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 17,463 | 88.7¢ | $15.5K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| nedsta0xf92a…a517 | No | 17,136 | 78.4¢ | $15.2K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 466 bets |
| hopedieslast0x5739…5f1a | No | 16,000 | 85.1¢ | $14.2K | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 244 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 13,293 | 37.5¢ | $11.8K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| Trump20280x2e0b…8070 | No | 11,272 | 86.0¢ | $9.98K | Proven+$2.32 per $100 · 554 bets |
| bigbluejay0x4cbe…100a | Yes | 63,132 | 32.1¢ | $7.26K | New71 settled bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 7,404 | 85.4¢ | $6.55K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c | No | 6,765 | 67.7¢ | $5.99K | Proven+$4.52 per $100 · 1,293 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | Yes | 43,255 | 26.3¢ | $4.97K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 4,628 | 72.6¢ | $4.1K | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| aangelika0x2202…8787 | No | 4,359 | 85.0¢ | $3.86K | New15 settled bets |
| RewardsMafia0x3eed…cb2a | No | 4,181 | 83.0¢ | $3.7K | Losing−$7.88 per $100 · 238 bets |
| MonacoLover0xb8b4…1f6e | No | 3,252 | 87.7¢ | $2.88K | Losing−$9.91 per $100 · 139 bets |
| Niseko0x801d…d8e0 | Yes | 19,576 | 46.1¢ | $2.25K | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 2,052 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 2,471 | 84.2¢ | $2.19K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| k00pa0xa289…d95c | No | 2,400 | 88.0¢ | $2.12K | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 394 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 2,395 | 62.7¢ | $2.12K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| CasanaView0x43c4…5565 | No | 2,200 | 73.7¢ | $1.95K | New4 settled bets |
| aiioi0xe2cb…6e8f | No | 2,172 | 62.2¢ | $1.92K | — |
| nicolasGurr0x848d…35e6 | No | 2,107 | 64.0¢ | $1.86K | — |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | No | 2,103 | 84.2¢ | $1.86K | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 2,000 | 82.0¢ | $1.77K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| Quantollah0x0b9d…8201 | No | 2,000 | 25.0¢ | $1.77K | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 287 bets |
| 0x8c66…44f3 | No | 1,951 | 51.5¢ | $1.73K | Proven+$3.23 per $100 · 143 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 1,657 | 85.4¢ | $1.47K | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| SusanWarrenHR0x22db…190f | No | 1,610 | 45.6¢ | $1.42K | Proven+$4.72 per $100 · 8,310 bets |
| Akvyr0x69c9…3b29 | No | 1,473 | 59.4¢ | $1.3K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 472 bets |
| 0x5138…4fe5 | Yes | 10,629 | 11.1¢ | $1.22K | Losing−$57.37 per $100 · 126 bets |
| ScuffedSlab0xf66c…4faf | No | 1,314 | 50.0¢ | $1.16K | — |
| 50degrees0x3f44…fa88 | No | 1,300 | 69.7¢ | $1.15K | — |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | No | 1,216 | 87.0¢ | $1.08K | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| 007-Bond0x8947…f4b4 | No | 1,200 | 84.2¢ | $1.06K | New96 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,168 | 80.2¢ | $1.03K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,943 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 8,969 | 52.0¢ | $1.03K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| katbot0x3007…763a | No | 1,045 | 76.5¢ | $925 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 159 bets |
| apple-pi0xaf23…aa95 | Yes | 7,698 | 64.9¢ | $885 | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 878 bets |
| Gl4d0x1e3a…9e14 | No | 1,000 | 87.0¢ | $885 | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 2,434 bets |
| PROPHET.NOTES0xcb11…0d5e | No | 1,000 | 0.0¢ | $885 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 543 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 976 | 78.1¢ | $864 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| kirby260xa0d3…5b5e | No | 862 | 87.0¢ | $763 | Losing−$6.53 per $100 · 3,226 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | Yes | 6,000 | 25.5¢ | $690 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 2,138 bets |
| 383880xc5ea…83f5 | Yes | 5,780 | 26.0¢ | $665 | New73 settled bets |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 733 | 81.4¢ | $649 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 600 | 78.3¢ | $531 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| fedupferret0xfe23…937b | No | 588 | 85.0¢ | $521 | New67 settled bets |
| Beyonddream0xb24c…eefe | Yes | 4,000 | 19.5¢ | $460 | Break-even−$0.68 per $100 · 503 bets |
| dontshowmyname0x0c97…1b68 | Yes | 4,000 | 24.1¢ | $460 | Proven+$2.33 per $100 · 1,857 bets |
| nvdb820x983f…95c3 | No | 502 | 49.8¢ | $444 | — |
| Newshound0x5e73…6697 | Yes | 3,552 | 28.4¢ | $408 | Proven+$5.54 per $100 · 1,941 bets |
| 0x4e83…a81f | No | 417 | 76.7¢ | $369 | — |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | Yes | 3,119 | 33.9¢ | $359 | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 404 | 77.2¢ | $357 | Losing−$2.92 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | No | 402 | 59.0¢ | $356 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| tywed0xc8e3…6fb0 | No | 400 | 40.0¢ | $354 | — |
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | 2,943 | 67.2¢ | $338 | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 4,115 bets |
| 0x7302…828a | No | 368 | 68.0¢ | $325 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 2,661 | 32.7¢ | $306 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| paula0xa0xed86…6ee1 | Yes | 2,653 | 11.3¢ | $305 | New94 settled bets |
| Stonktrader0x73e3…3239 | Yes | 2,506 | 68.7¢ | $288 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 519 bets |
| 0x882b…a746 | No | 320 | 77.6¢ | $283 | — |
| ayles10xef26…e6cf | No | 313 | 64.0¢ | $277 | — |
| ansatz0x5fa4…cd4e | No | 304 | 69.4¢ | $269 | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 320 bets |
| VolynMolfar0x6c2a…b7b5 | No | 304 | 46.7¢ | $269 | Positive+$1.70 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| 0xd96a…eb9b | Yes | 2,289 | 17.5¢ | $263 | — |
| 0x6c92…1322 | Yes | 2,208 | 56.7¢ | $254 | Losing−$1.24 per $100 · 2,039 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | Yes | 2,097 | 13.1¢ | $241 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | Yes | 2,000 | 33.0¢ | $230 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 1,254 bets |
| AgricultureSecretary0x6ffb…a834 | Yes | 2,000 | 16.0¢ | $230 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 13,578 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 1,971 | 27.8¢ | $227 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | Yes | 1,555 | 30.0¢ | $179 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| TheKinginYellow0x4ac9…cf1a | Yes | 1,550 | 27.4¢ | $178 | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 1,446 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 190 | 88.3¢ | $169 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,267 bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | Yes | 1,407 | 40.8¢ | $162 | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 4,098 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 1,400 | 21.5¢ | $161 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| Trading4Fridge0x2525…b919 | Yes | 1,145 | 33.8¢ | $132 | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 2,426 bets |
| Hossein-m0xd726…b5c9 | Yes | 1,000 | 33.1¢ | $115 | — |
| Karayama0x7887…7850 | Yes | 1,000 | 14.0¢ | $115 | — |
| Egymask0x838d…b87b | Yes | 995 | 22.1¢ | $114 | — |
| AncientWind0xa7a5…c417 | Yes | 964 | 35.0¢ | $111 | — |
| erlichbachmn0x999f…addb | Yes | 907 | 74.6¢ | $104 | — |
| GrokEnjoyer0x92e5…efee | Yes | 832 | 54.0¢ | $96 | Positive+$1.17 per $100 · 833 bets |
| Winner1234567890xe467…437f | Yes | 755 | 39.7¢ | $87 | — |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | Yes | 737 | 21.0¢ | $85 | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| chainoracle0x9a56…530e | Yes | 676 | 74.0¢ | $78 | — |
| 0x919d…60e1 | Yes | 600 | 67.0¢ | $69 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 1,345 bets |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | Yes | 600 | 56.0¢ | $69 | — |
| 234490xc040…beac | Yes | 503 | 53.4¢ | $58 | Proven+$29.13 per $100 · 422 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 500 | 26.0¢ | $58 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| Giannis20260xe5b4…1e3e | Yes | 500 | 73.0¢ | $58 | Proven+$13.43 per $100 · 350 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 450 | 16.1¢ | $52 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| Robbb0x9cdd…3e97 | Yes | 422 | 50.8¢ | $49 | Proven+$5.15 per $100 · 4,527 bets |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | Yes | 400 | 15.0¢ | $46 | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| 0xc7cd…093a | Yes | 350 | 27.0¢ | $40 | — |
| LuckyPunch990x3169…21b4 | Yes | 300 | 16.0¢ | $35 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 570 bets |
| 300PS0x8f41…260e | Yes | 300 | 66.7¢ | $35 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 4,600 bets |
| 0xb4f6…eada | Yes | 295 | 22.9¢ | $34 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.